HORAN Capital Advisors

Disciplined Investing

Dogs Of The Dow Lag Broader Market

 April 27 2019     David Templeton
With nearly a third of the year behind investors, following is an update on the performance of the Dogs of the Dow strategy. The Dogs of the Dow strategy is one where investors select the ten stocks that have the highest dividend yield from the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) after the close of business on the last trading day of the year. Once the ten stocks are determined...

A High Neutral Sentiment Level Indicative Of An Indecisive Investor

 April 26 2019     David Templeton
Earlier this week the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported the results from their weekly Sentiment Survey. The report noted the bullish sentiment level was 33.5% which certainly indicates individual investors are not overly bullish. Sentiment readings are contrarian in nature so a high bullishness reading would be one cautionary factor for investors to take into account reg...

The Tax Cut And Jobs Act Is Distorting 2019 Estimated Earnings Growth

 April 14 2019     David Templeton
With first quarter earnings season shifting into high gear (50 companies reporting the week of April 15), investors will contend with a slower pace of earnings growth in 2019 versus 2018. The difficulty is the fact 2018 earnings saw a significantly higher pace of growth due to the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that lowered the corporate tax rate; thus, providing an earnings tailwind ...

Negative Equity Flows Reflective Of A Cautious Investor

 April 11 2019     David Templeton
A little less than a month ago I wrote a post noting weekly flows into equity mutual funds and ETF's had turned decidedly positive, and in fact were the largest inflows looking back an entire year. I rhetorically pondered if the increase in equity flows was a sign equity markets were topping, especially after such a strong start to the year. From a contrarian perspective, had investors jumped into...

Spring 2019 Investor Letter: Markets Rebound To Begin The Year

 April 10 2019     David Templeton
Stocks bounced back in the first quarter with the best quarterly start for the S&P 500 Index since 2009, up 13.5%, after a weak showing at the end of last year. We have said in the past that strength tends to beget more strength. LPL Research noted in a recent report that there have been ten other times since 1950 where the S&P 500 Index was up greater than 10% in the first quarter. In 9 out of 10...

JOLTS Weakness, But A Month Is Not A Trend

 April 9 2019     David Templeton
The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed a drop in openings of 538,000. Commentary on the February report used terms like plunged and disaster. Admittedly, the decline in openings should not be dismissed out of hand; however, it has not been an unusual occurrence for openings to fall as seen in the below chart.Importantly, openings continue to exceed the number of unemployed by 8...

Tactical Asset Allocation Can Add Value To Portfolio Return

 April 8 2019     David Templeton
A potential downside for investors employing a strict longer term strategic investment allocation based on a specific benchmark or index is that the strategy fails to incorporate shorter term tactical changes. It certainly can go without saying but indexing strategies are popular ones for investors. In fact we utilize some index products in our investment approach with our clients. The downside fo...

Economic Expansions Don't Die Of Old Age

 April 7 2019     David Templeton
As the end of March neared, the 3-month Treasury interest rate surpassed the 10-year Treasury interest rate and this resulted in a 3-month/10-year inversion of the yield curve, the first since 2007. This inversion has unwound as the curve has started to steepen with a move higher in the 10-year yield. At HORAN we focus more on the 2-year rate versus 10-year rate and this portion of the curve has y...

Stock Buyback Boom In 2018

 March 26 2019     David Templeton
Yesterday S&P Dow Jones Indices reported stock buyback activity for the S&P 500 Index as of the end of the fourth quarter 2018. Highlights from S&P DJI report:Q4 share repurchases increased 62.8% year-over-year to a record $223.0 billionTotal 2018 buybacks set record $806.4 billion, up 55.3% year-over-year, and up 36.9% from the record $589.1 billion set in 2007Almost every S&P 500 constituent – 4...

Equity Inflows Now Turning More Positive As Equity Returns Near A Peak?

 March 21 2019     David Templeton
The Investment Company Institute releases fund flow and ETF net issuance data on Wednesday's with a one week lag. In Wednesday's report for the week ending March 13, 2019, ICI reports domestic equity inflows spiked to $12.8 billion. This represents the largest weekly inflow since March 20, 2018 when domestic equity inflows totaled $19.1 billion.On a cumulative basis over the last one year period, ...
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