HORAN Capital Advisors

More Weakness Seen With Modern Portfolio Theory

 October 8 2012     David Templeton
Niels Jensen's, of Absolute Return Partners, market letter to investors notes how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) has become less effective over time. Over the past few years we have written several posts (here and here) on the problems with MPT. One chart in the Jensen's market letter displays the increasing correlation between asset classes that has developed since 2000 thus limiting the effective...

Weak CEO Confidence, Weaker Market Ahead?

 October 7 2012     David Templeton
Last week The Conference Board released its CEO Confidence Measure and noted a decline to 42 in the third quarter versus 47 in Q2. A reading below 50 reflects more negative responses than positive ones. The report notes a third of the CEO's surveyed indicated they were curtailing capital spending plans. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board noted,"This latest report ...

Dividend Payments Increase In Third Quarter

 October 6 2012     David Templeton
In a report recently released by Standard & Poor's, they note more companies increased their dividend payments in the third quarter versus the same quarter last year. The number of positive actions (439) equals the number in Q3 2007. The report notes:"...dividend net increases (increases less decreases) were $8.8 billion in the third quarter of 2012, setting what is believed to be a new record div...

Food Stamp Participation Versus Labor Force Participation

 September 23 2012     David Templeton
Central banks around the world are doing all they can to pump liquidity into their respective economies. To date though, their actions are having limited effectiveness when it comes to improving economic growth. One consequence of the slow growth in the U.S. is the dramatic increase in food stamp usage. The increased food stamp usage also seems to translate into a lower labor force participation r...

Private Fixed Investment Signaling A Recession?

 September 22 2012     David Templeton
An article from three months ago on the SentimentCharts website noted the slowing YOY change in Private Fixed Investment (FPI) had signaled all seven U.S. recession over the last 45 years. The data used in the SentimentCharts' article was through the first quarter of the year and an increase in the growth of FPI was seen. One quarter later though, through the second quarter, the YOY growth in FPI ...

Strong Stock Buyback Activity in Q2

 September 22 2012     David Templeton
Standard & Poor's recently reported the buyback data for the S&P 500 Index for the second quarter. Noted in their release is buybacks increased 32.5% in Q2 versus Q1. Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices noted,"The last time we have seen this level of activity was during the pre-recession heydays of 2005-2007. While the second quarter produced a broad decline in the eq...

Transport Company Warnings Not Positive Sign For Global Economic Growth

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
Over the course of the last two days, both FedEx (FDX) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) have issued significantly lower earnings guidance. In the case of FDX, the warning may be more of a concern given the global nature of their business. Additionally, the link between FedEx package shipments and YOY GDP growth suggests the global economy is experiencing a significant slowdown.From The Blog of HORAN Cap...

Jason Trennert: Short Term Bearish

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, recently discussed his views on the economy and believes the recent economic data is typically associated with an economy that is in a recession. In his Barron's article this week, Long-Term Bull, Short-Term Bear ($), Trennert noted,"Profit margins are two standard deviations above the mean, and nominal GDP growth of 3.1%...

Federal Reserve Dominant Buyer Of Treasuries

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
An end result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs, including operation twist, is the Fed's balance sheet has swelled with the growth in U.S. treasury holdings. In 2011, the Fed purchased over 60% of all the treasuries issued by the government. A recent Bloomberg comment notes the Fed now owns over 37% of all treasuries with maturities greater than 5-years.From The Blog of HORAN C...

Dow's Recent Advance Below Average In Duration And Magnitude

 September 16 2012     David Templeton
Even with all the Fed's intervention and their attempt to force investors into risk assets, The Chart of the Day's recent market chart notes the current rally is both below average in duration and magnitude."The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday on the news that the Fed will embark on a third round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE3). To provide some perspective on the cur...
Page 99 of 107First   Previous   94  95  96  97  98  [99]  100  101  102  103  Next   Last