HORAN Capital Advisors

Private Fixed Investment Signaling A Recession?

 September 22 2012     David Templeton
An article from three months ago on the SentimentCharts website noted the slowing YOY change in Private Fixed Investment (FPI) had signaled all seven U.S. recession over the last 45 years. The data used in the SentimentCharts' article was through the first quarter of the year and an increase in the growth of FPI was seen. One quarter later though, through the second quarter, the YOY growth in FPI ...

Strong Stock Buyback Activity in Q2

 September 22 2012     David Templeton
Standard & Poor's recently reported the buyback data for the S&P 500 Index for the second quarter. Noted in their release is buybacks increased 32.5% in Q2 versus Q1. Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices noted,"The last time we have seen this level of activity was during the pre-recession heydays of 2005-2007. While the second quarter produced a broad decline in the eq...

Transport Company Warnings Not Positive Sign For Global Economic Growth

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
Over the course of the last two days, both FedEx (FDX) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) have issued significantly lower earnings guidance. In the case of FDX, the warning may be more of a concern given the global nature of their business. Additionally, the link between FedEx package shipments and YOY GDP growth suggests the global economy is experiencing a significant slowdown.From The Blog of HORAN Cap...

Jason Trennert: Short Term Bearish

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, recently discussed his views on the economy and believes the recent economic data is typically associated with an economy that is in a recession. In his Barron's article this week, Long-Term Bull, Short-Term Bear ($), Trennert noted,"Profit margins are two standard deviations above the mean, and nominal GDP growth of 3.1%...

Federal Reserve Dominant Buyer Of Treasuries

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
An end result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs, including operation twist, is the Fed's balance sheet has swelled with the growth in U.S. treasury holdings. In 2011, the Fed purchased over 60% of all the treasuries issued by the government. A recent Bloomberg comment notes the Fed now owns over 37% of all treasuries with maturities greater than 5-years.From The Blog of HORAN C...

Dow's Recent Advance Below Average In Duration And Magnitude

 September 16 2012     David Templeton
Even with all the Fed's intervention and their attempt to force investors into risk assets, The Chart of the Day's recent market chart notes the current rally is both below average in duration and magnitude."The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday on the news that the Fed will embark on a third round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE3). To provide some perspective on the cur...

Jeffrey Gundlach: I Doubt You're Going To See Lost Decade In Equities

 September 15 2012     David Templeton
Fixed income manager, Jeffry Gundlach, sat down for an interview on Bloomberg recently. In the interview he discusses the risk that has developed in the bond market, specifically in treasuries. His firm DoubleLine, is considering expanding into equity fund management as well.h/t: Abnormal Returns

Revenue And Earnings Growth Continue To Slow

 September 12 2012     David Templeton
One of the services provided by Thomson Reuters (TRI) is they aggregate financial data from analyst. TRI recently updated/aggregated all the analyst data as it relates to earnings and revenues for the S&P 500 Index companies for the third quarter. TRI notes:"...companies in the S&P 500 are likely to post the slowest annual revenue growth rate [for Q3] in the last decade (barring the 2008/2009 fi...

As of August Year To Date Dividend Payers' Return Trails Non Payers

 September 8 2012     David Templeton
On a year to date basis ending August 31, 2012, the return of the dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index trails the return of the non payers. The average return of the payers equals 10.37% versus 12.70% for the non payers. For the 12-month period the payers average return totals 14.70% versus 10.01% for the non payers. On a weighted basis though, the S&P 500 Index return equals 18.00% versus the 14....

Unemployment Rate Down Due To Participation Rate Decline

 September 7 2012     David Templeton
The employment situation report released this morning indicated non-farm payrolls increased by 96,000 versus an estimated increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate declined to 8.1% versus 8.3% in the prior month. The total number of unemployed remained at 12.5 million people so one would not expect the unemployment rate to decline. However, the decline in the rate is due entirely to the fact 368,...
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