HORAN Capital Advisors

Jason Trennert: Short Term Bearish

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, recently discussed his views on the economy and believes the recent economic data is typically associated with an economy that is in a recession. In his Barron's article this week, Long-Term Bull, Short-Term Bear ($), Trennert noted,"Profit margins are two standard deviations above the mean, and nominal GDP growth of 3.1%...

Federal Reserve Dominant Buyer Of Treasuries

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
An end result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs, including operation twist, is the Fed's balance sheet has swelled with the growth in U.S. treasury holdings. In 2011, the Fed purchased over 60% of all the treasuries issued by the government. A recent Bloomberg comment notes the Fed now owns over 37% of all treasuries with maturities greater than 5-years.From The Blog of HORAN C...

Dow's Recent Advance Below Average In Duration And Magnitude

 September 16 2012     David Templeton
Even with all the Fed's intervention and their attempt to force investors into risk assets, The Chart of the Day's recent market chart notes the current rally is both below average in duration and magnitude."The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday on the news that the Fed will embark on a third round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE3). To provide some perspective on the cur...

Jeffrey Gundlach: I Doubt You're Going To See Lost Decade In Equities

 September 15 2012     David Templeton
Fixed income manager, Jeffry Gundlach, sat down for an interview on Bloomberg recently. In the interview he discusses the risk that has developed in the bond market, specifically in treasuries. His firm DoubleLine, is considering expanding into equity fund management as well.h/t: Abnormal Returns

Revenue And Earnings Growth Continue To Slow

 September 12 2012     David Templeton
One of the services provided by Thomson Reuters (TRI) is they aggregate financial data from analyst. TRI recently updated/aggregated all the analyst data as it relates to earnings and revenues for the S&P 500 Index companies for the third quarter. TRI notes:"...companies in the S&P 500 are likely to post the slowest annual revenue growth rate [for Q3] in the last decade (barring the 2008/2009 fi...

As of August Year To Date Dividend Payers' Return Trails Non Payers

 September 8 2012     David Templeton
On a year to date basis ending August 31, 2012, the return of the dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index trails the return of the non payers. The average return of the payers equals 10.37% versus 12.70% for the non payers. For the 12-month period the payers average return totals 14.70% versus 10.01% for the non payers. On a weighted basis though, the S&P 500 Index return equals 18.00% versus the 14....

Unemployment Rate Down Due To Participation Rate Decline

 September 7 2012     David Templeton
The employment situation report released this morning indicated non-farm payrolls increased by 96,000 versus an estimated increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate declined to 8.1% versus 8.3% in the prior month. The total number of unemployed remained at 12.5 million people so one would not expect the unemployment rate to decline. However, the decline in the rate is due entirely to the fact 368,...

Recession Risk In U.S. Rising But Still Low

 September 3 2012     David Templeton
From a business cycle perspective, Fidelity recently released a report that indicated the risk of a recession in the U.S. was rising. Although the rising recession risk is low, the report cited weak "external" factors as the cause. Also, these weak external factors may be impacting company earnings expectations as noted in yesterday's post: Companies Lowering Earnings Guidance For Third Quarter. F...

Companies Lowering Earnings Guidance For Third Quarter

 September 1 2012     David Templeton
In spite of the high level of negative earnings guidance issued by companies for the third quarter, the market is shaking of this news and moving higher. Factset reports,"For Q3 2012, 80 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance while 21 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. If 80 is the final number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the quarter, it will mark the seco...

Where Hedge Funds Are Allocating Their Investments

 September 1 2012     David Templeton
Broadly, hedge funds have mostly trailed their market benchmarks; however, investors may find interest in tracking changes in positions and sectors for the hedge fund group. Investors should keep in mind that hedge fund positions are reported once a quarter and the report can be as late as 45 days following a quarter. Consequently, a fund's report may not be reflective of the fund's current alloca...
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