HORAN Capital Advisors

Steven Romick Interview On WealthTrack: Focusing On High Quality

 October 20 2012     David Templeton
The below video contains a rare interview with Steven Romick, portfolio manager of the FPA Crescent Fund (FPACX), and Consuelo Mack of WealthTrack. Romick provides insight into his investment approach that includes his current views surrounding his portfolio's current construction. In large part, he is most concerned about the consequences of the money printing that is currently taking place by th...

Investor Sentiment Near Lows Seen Last Summer

 October 18 2012     David Templeton
The investor sentiment survey, a contrarian indicator, released today by the American Association of Individual Investors noted the bearish sentiment level increased by 5.7 percentage points to 44.55%. This level of bearishness was last seen this past summer when the S&P was trading in the low 1,300s. Bullish sentiment fell to 28.66%, also at levels seen this past summer. In spite of this level of...

Investor Letter: 3rd Quarter 2012

 October 16 2012     David Templeton
At the beginning of the third quarter, investors following the “sell in May” strategy felt vindicated as the S&P 500 Index declined over 9.0% from May 1st to June 4th. The June 4th date turned out to be the intra-year market low and the equity rally was almost uninhibited throughout the remainder of the third quarter. The rising tide seemed to lift all markets during the quarter.As noted in our Th...

More Weakness Seen With Modern Portfolio Theory

 October 8 2012     David Templeton
Niels Jensen's, of Absolute Return Partners, market letter to investors notes how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) has become less effective over time. Over the past few years we have written several posts (here and here) on the problems with MPT. One chart in the Jensen's market letter displays the increasing correlation between asset classes that has developed since 2000 thus limiting the effective...

Weak CEO Confidence, Weaker Market Ahead?

 October 7 2012     David Templeton
Last week The Conference Board released its CEO Confidence Measure and noted a decline to 42 in the third quarter versus 47 in Q2. A reading below 50 reflects more negative responses than positive ones. The report notes a third of the CEO's surveyed indicated they were curtailing capital spending plans. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board noted,"This latest report ...

Dividend Payments Increase In Third Quarter

 October 6 2012     David Templeton
In a report recently released by Standard & Poor's, they note more companies increased their dividend payments in the third quarter versus the same quarter last year. The number of positive actions (439) equals the number in Q3 2007. The report notes:"...dividend net increases (increases less decreases) were $8.8 billion in the third quarter of 2012, setting what is believed to be a new record div...

Food Stamp Participation Versus Labor Force Participation

 September 23 2012     David Templeton
Central banks around the world are doing all they can to pump liquidity into their respective economies. To date though, their actions are having limited effectiveness when it comes to improving economic growth. One consequence of the slow growth in the U.S. is the dramatic increase in food stamp usage. The increased food stamp usage also seems to translate into a lower labor force participation r...

Private Fixed Investment Signaling A Recession?

 September 22 2012     David Templeton
An article from three months ago on the SentimentCharts website noted the slowing YOY change in Private Fixed Investment (FPI) had signaled all seven U.S. recession over the last 45 years. The data used in the SentimentCharts' article was through the first quarter of the year and an increase in the growth of FPI was seen. One quarter later though, through the second quarter, the YOY growth in FPI ...

Strong Stock Buyback Activity in Q2

 September 22 2012     David Templeton
Standard & Poor's recently reported the buyback data for the S&P 500 Index for the second quarter. Noted in their release is buybacks increased 32.5% in Q2 versus Q1. Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices noted,"The last time we have seen this level of activity was during the pre-recession heydays of 2005-2007. While the second quarter produced a broad decline in the eq...

Transport Company Warnings Not Positive Sign For Global Economic Growth

 September 19 2012     David Templeton
Over the course of the last two days, both FedEx (FDX) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) have issued significantly lower earnings guidance. In the case of FDX, the warning may be more of a concern given the global nature of their business. Additionally, the link between FedEx package shipments and YOY GDP growth suggests the global economy is experiencing a significant slowdown.From The Blog of HORAN Cap...
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