HORAN Capital Advisors

Implications Of An Elevated Equity Risk Premium For Asset Allocation

 December 2 2012     David Templeton
Assessing the equity risk premium (ERP) is an important factor for investment professionals and corporate finance officers. I will forgo discussing the importance to a CFO in assessing the ERP and focus on investment professionals. Given the importance of the ERP one will find a surprising amount of disagreement around how to determine the appropriate ERP level. One can perform a "Google search"...

Dogs Of The Dow Performance Update

 December 1 2012     David Templeton
For the first eleven months of the year, the Dow Dogs price only performance has matched the Dow Index return with both returning about 6.6%. The S&P 500 Index return of 12.6% is nearly double the Dow Jones Industrial Average return. The Dow Dogs do have a yield higher than the index which results in slight outperformance for the Dow Dogs.As noted in prior posts, the Dow Dog strategy consists of s...

Retailers Open Thanksgiving To Counteract E-commerce Sales

 November 25 2012     David Templeton
A significant reason retailers opened their doors on Thanksgiving was an attempt to limit the impact of online sales on that day. ComScore reported e-commerce sales increased 32% YOY to $633 million on Thanksgiving. E-commerce sales on Black Friday increased 26% YOY to $1.042 billion, the first time surpassing the one billion dollar mark.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsBricks and mortar ret...

A Buyback Strategy Does Outperform

 November 24 2012     David Templeton
In this week's Barron's an article, Beware the Buyback ETF Strategy ($), appears stating "there's precious little evidence that share repurchases do much for long-term investors." In fact, this could not be further from the truth. One of the more popular buyback ETFs is the PowerShares Buyback Achievers Portfolio (ticker-PKW.) I have written articles on this index as recently as October of last ye...

The Challenge: Finding A Balanced Solution To The Fiscal Cliff

 November 23 2012     David Templeton
Since November 15th the S&P 500 Index has managed to gain over 4% in spite of the rhetoric surrounding the consequences of going over the fiscal cliff. Finding a "balanced" solution to the budget issues in Washington is more than a near term issue. As the below chart shows, total credit market debt to GDP has been on an increasingly higher growth trajectory. A contributor to this debt increase is ...

U. S. Government Spending Growth Nearly Always Positive (Updated)

 November 22 2012     David Templeton
It goes without saying the most cited market topic every day of late, but I will mention it anyway, is the discussion about the fiscal cliff. The anticipated negative impact on the economy, and hence the market, of going over the cliff is significant. At the end of the day Congress and the administration in Washington, D.C. need to address the mismatch between revenue and expenses of the federal g...

New Healthcare Law: Higher Employee Turnover And Reduced Company Stock Returns?

 November 18 2012     David Templeton
One aspect of the new healthcare law (The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA)), and commonly called Obamacare, is the requirement that employers with more than 50 employees must provide healthcare to those employees working more than 30 hours per week. A number of companies, especially in the retail and fast food industries, have stated they will reduce employee hours to below 30 ho...

Many Believe Market Is Oversold So What Will Happen

 November 18 2012     David Templeton
In reading a number of strategists' take on the current market technicals, it seems many believe the market is oversold and due for a bounce.Don't Jump Off The Fiscal Cliff - ForbesMarket Rally Soon? - Extreme Oversold Levels - MTR Investors Group23 of 30 Dow Stocks Oversold - Bespoke Investment GroupUse Dip To Buy Global Growth Stocks - Deutsche Bank's David Bianco Updated: 11/18/2012 3:43pmCase ...

Fiscal Cliff Tax Impact By State

 November 12 2012     David Templeton
The Tax Foundation released a report today showing the tax impact on a median four person family for each state if Congress and the President allow the country to go over the so-called "fiscal cliff." New Jersey would see the largest tax increase of $6,933 or 6.82% on median family income of $101,682. The smallest tax increase would be experienced by the state of Washington at $3,362 of 4.12% on m...

Equity Put/Call Ratio On The Rise

 November 12 2012     David Templeton
The equity put/call ratio has been in an uptrend since mid September when the put/call ratio fell to .53. Not too coincidentally the S&P 500 Index hit 1,465, the high for the year. As noted in May's prior post, Equity Put/Call Ratio Approaching 1.0:"The equity P/C ratio tends to measure the sentiment of the individual investor by dividing put volume by call volume. At the extremes, this particular...
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