HORAN Capital Advisors

Equity Market Performance Before And After The U.S. Midterm Election

 September 25 2018     David Templeton
September this year certainly seemed like an odd month. For example, the fifth business day of the month was Tuesday, September 10 as Labor Day in the U.S. was on Monday September 3. The first business day was September 4. The end of the month is this Friday, September 28. I mention this as the Presidential cycle is getting more attention since the mid term elections are a little more than a month...

Instilling Fear In Investors Via Charts

 September 16 2018     David Templeton
In the mid 1990's famed investor Peter Lynch stated, "Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves." With this quote in mind it seems a number of investment pundits are once again trying to sell fear regarding the current equity market. This morning I ran across the following chart on Twitter.S...

The Rules of the Family

 September 13 2018     Anna Pfaehler
One morning my then 4-year-old daughter, we’ll call her Bee, asked me “What are the rules of the family?” Kids have a way of asking you deep questions when you are least prepared. My quick answer was: Stick together Love each other Have fun These were all things she could understand given her limited scope of experiences and frame of referen...

Job Openings And Quits Rising At Faster Pace Than Job Hires

 September 11 2018     David Templeton
The Labor Department's release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTs) report this morning is further confirmation of a strong labor market. The NFIB Small Business Optimism report I highlighted earlier today also noted the difficulty small business are having in filling open job positions. The JOLTs report continues to show the number of job openings exceeding the number of unemployed indi...

New Record High For The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

 September 11 2018     David Templeton
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported that August's Small Business Optimism Index set a new record high at 108.8. The prior high mark for the index was set 45-years ago (July 1983) when the index reached 108. NFIB's President & CEO, Juanita Duggan, stated in the report,"Today’s groundbreaking numbers are demonstrative of what I’m hearing everyday from small business own...

Watch For A Peak In Consumer Sentiment

 August 31 2018     David Templeton
Utilizing sentiment measures in one's analysis is not an exact science. On the other hand, at their extremes, these sentiment measures do provide signals of a potential near term change in market and economic direction.  A number of 'investor sentiment' measures are available to evaluate, but I am highlighting only two below, the NAAIM Exposure Index and the American Association of Individual Inve...

Respect The Predictive Power Of An Inverted Yield Curve

 August 25 2018     David Templeton
There are a few events in investing that have a high likelihood of being good predictors of the equity market's future direction, like, stock prices follow earnings, market breadth leads price, or an inverted yield curve leads economic weakness. One factor I believe the bears have missed in the recent market advance seems to be their discounting of the increasing strength of corporate earnings gro...

Yet To Break The Bull Market Record

 August 22 2018     David Templeton
I have been a bit lax in writing blog posts as client and investment responsibilities have taken precedence. On a day like today though, I feel compelled to type out a blog post recognizing today's record breaking bull market, or is it?For those believing today is a record breaking one, March 9, 2009 was the start of the current bull market; therefore, today represents the 3,453 day of the advance...

Near Record Small Business Optimism

 August 14 2018     David Templeton
As I review and highlight business and consumer optimism, I feel as though my thoughts are a bit like a broken record that plays the same song over and over again. With that, another business optimism survey is highly positive. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that small business optimism rose to the second highest level in the indexes history. The optimism index lev...

Is Korea Equity Market Weakness A Precursor To Weakness In U.S. Markets?

 August 11 2018     David Templeton
About a year ago I provided an update on the Korea Stock Exchange Index (KOSPI) and the fact it can serve as a leading indicator to U.S. equity market performance. As noted in that earlier post, I referenced noted economist, Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI, who believes the KOSPI index is a leading indicator of the global economy as South Korea's exports account for over 40% of the country's gross domest...
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