HORAN Capital Advisors

Conflicting Reports On Manufacturing PMI's

 December 2 2019     David Templeton
One potential consequence of an economy that is growing at a slow pace is the higher likelihood that reported economic data has a tendency to conflict with some of the other economic reports. An example of this is the report on manufacturing activity today. Both the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Markit reported November Purchasing Manager Index data with the ISM PMI report coming in at...

Investing At All Time Highs In The Equity Market

 December 2 2019     David Templeton
One difficulty for investors in the U.S. market at the moment is the fact it seems to be hitting new highs on what seems like a daily basis. What gets missed by investors though is a market reaching new highs is actually a bullish signal and tends to be a precursor to additional highs. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 Index provided by The Kirk Report and the red dots show instances where the marke...

Business Cycle Data And Investor Sentiment Supportive Of Higher Equity Prices

 November 28 2019     David Templeton
One factor impacting investor sentiment at the moment may be the fact the equity market has generated strong returns to date in 2019. The impact on individual investor sentiment has been one of caution. On a price only basis the return on large cap to small cap stocks is in excess of 20% this year, with emerging market returns low double digits as seen below. The second chart shows returns for the...

The Business Segment Of The Economy Is Improving Too

 November 27 2019     David Templeton
My last few posts have focused on the strength of the consumer with a part of this strength a result of the strong labor market. Today's jobless claims of 213,000 beat consensus of 218,000 and beat the low end of the range of expectations which equaled 215,000. Now, after a couple more economic reports today it seems the business sector may be in an upswing as well.The Chicago Purchasing Managers'...

Accelerating New Home Sales

 November 26 2019     David Templeton
Yesterday's blog post focused on the strength of the consumer and the positive impact on the housing market. Also noted in that post was the consumer's improved financial position versus the end of the financial crisis and the current limited draw down of one's home equity. Then today, the U.S. Census Bureau's new home sales report for October proved to be a strong one. Sales of new single family ...

A Healthy Consumer Leading To Favorable Housing Market

 November 25 2019     David Templeton
Late last week the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales of 5.46 million units at an annual rate. This number was slightly below estimates, however, it was higher than the previous month and was 4.6% higher on a year over year basis. As the below chart shows, this rate of sales appears favorable compared to the last several decades. What is important to note is units availa...

A Healthy Consumer A Positive For The Economy

 November 24 2019     David Templeton
The consumer is an important part of the economy as the consumer segment accounts for nearly 70% of GDP. As the current economic expansion continues to extend its record run in terms of length month after month, looking for excesses or bubbles is certainly warranted. However, one area that seems in decent shape is the consumer, yet some recent commentary seems to have some doubt with a focus on th...

This May Be The Time For Value Investors

 November 9 2019     David Templeton
Since late August value style equities have outperformed their growth counterparts. Except for a few brief periods over much of the last six years, the growth style has dominated the value style. In late 2015 through late 2016 value dominated growth as seen in the below chart. In a post I wrote several years ago, 2015 Was A Year For Growth Stocks And Only A Handful Were Needed, I also noted how do...

Improving Individual Investor Sentiment

 November 7 2019     David Templeton
Bullish investor sentiment improved 6.3 percentage points to 40.3% from the prior week's reported level as noted by the American Association of Individual Investors. This is the highest bullishness level since the May 9 reading of 43.1%. Individual investor sentiment is certainly reacting positively to the upward trend in the equity markets, yet the current bullishness level only falls in the midd...

Dividend Payers A Winning Strategy In A Volatile Equity Market

 November 4 2019     David Templeton
Now that the S&P 500 Index seems to be making a habit of reaching new highs on a more frequent basis, the journey has been anything but a smooth one. One area of the market that provided for a less bumpy ride was in the dividend paying stocks. Simply evaluating the return in a few of the dividend paying strategies since the market's peak in late September of last year, a couple of the dividend pay...
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