HORAN Capital Advisors

Oil Supply Continues To Trend Lower

 July 3 2018     David Templeton
Thursday this week markets will get another look at oil inventory levels with the release of the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report. The past few weeks have confirmed strong declines in oil inventory levels. Last week's draw-down was 9.9 million barrels and the prior week saw a contraction of 5.9 million barrels.This normalization of oil supply is pushing oil prices higher, along with less invento...

If Earnings Matter, Equity Valuation Looks Attractive

 July 1 2018     David Templeton
With last week's final reading on first quarter GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis provides a final review of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). One category worth evaluating is the corporate profits figures. Corporate profits from the NIPA tables are true economic profits from IRS data and not simply profits based on GAAP. In the final GDP report last week, corporate profits with ...

Large Swing To Bearishness And Market Rallies

 June 29 2018     David Templeton
On Thursday the American Association of Individual Investors reported results from the weekly Sentiment Survey and sentiment swung decisively bearish. As noted in the past, the sentiment surveys are contrarian indicators and high levels of bearishness and/or low levels of bullishness can signal equity market turning points. Yesterday's report saw the bull/bear spread swing 24.9 percentage points, ...

Sentiment At Some Prior Equity Market Peaks

 June 21 2018     David Templeton
Not long ago I was ask to compare current sentiment data provided by the American Association of Individual Investors with the market sentiment levels reached near the peak of the technology bubble. Going a little further, below is a chart showing the individual investor Bull/Bear Spread near or going into the peak of the technology bubble and the peak reached just prior to the financial crisis.As...

Manufacturers' Optimism At Record High Too

 June 20 2018     David Templeton
Last week I noted the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached the second highest level in its 45 year history. As a follow on, the National Association of Manufacturers released their Second Quarter Outlook Survey today and reported manufacturers' optimism registered 95.1%, the highest level ever recorded in the 20-year old survey.Many positive takeaways can be extracted from the survey report....

A Little Perspective And Balance Would Be Useful

 June 19 2018     David Templeton
Much of what has been discussed on financial news networks over the course of the past several days has centered on tariffs and the escalation into a potentially larger trade war. This is the type of negative news that the media enjoys pounding into its readers and listeners. Of course one should not put their head in the sand about potential consequences of an all out trade war, which we believe ...

Small Business Optimism: 2nd Highest Level In 45-Year History

 June 12 2018     David Templeton
Today, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported the May Small Business Optimism Index increased to the second highest level in the survey's 45-year history. The May reading increased 2.6 points versus the April reading and exceeded the high end of the consensus range.Econoday reports:"the rise in optimism among small business owners was broad-based, with 8 of the 10 componen...

Another Look At Growth Versus Value

 June 10 2018     David Templeton
Writing blog commentary serves as a permanent record of one's thoughts at a specific point in time. When reflecting back on earlier posts, expectations and conclusions do not always unfold in the market or economy as anticipated and written about at that time. The benefit is one can adjust future thinking and conclusions if necessary. Sometimes events occur that one simply could not anticipate and...

One Chart Will Not Predict The Next Recession

 June 6 2018     David Templeton
I had the fortune to read an article yesterday, Uh-oh: Unemployment Falls Below 4%, that noted,"On each occasion that the unemployment rate sank beneath 4%… recession was soon on tap. To remind, it now rests at 3.8%. But why should recession rapidly follow peak employment?"The article included the below chart and provided several reasons that would seem to justify the fact a recession is near when...

Record Levels Of Strength In Economic Sentiment Reports

 June 3 2018     David Templeton
As regular readers of this blog know, from time to time I opine on investor sentiment whether it is the AAII Sentiment Survey, the Investor Intelligence Advisors' Sentiment report or the NAAIM Exposure Index. At the moment, suffice to say that these 'investor' sentiment reports are neither overly bullish or overly bearish and conclusions drawn from them are most useful when the data are at extreme...
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