HORAN Capital Advisors

Understanding The Purchasing Managers Index

 June 22 2019     David Templeton
No one variable provides the key to the future direction of the economy or market. However, one economic data point that tends to get a lot of attention is the Purchasing Mangers Index for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing parts of the economy. In fact in an article I wrote earlier this week I highlighted the optimism being expressed by manufacturers and small businesses. Many of my article...

Manufacturers And Small Businesses: Widespread Optimism

 June 16 2019     David Templeton
It seems one topic of interest continues to be talk of a recession as a result of the trade and tariff situation. A recent CNN Business article noted, "America's business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy." Who are these business leaders? "The survey, based on 53 economists, is a leading...

Seems All About The Fed At The Moment

 June 9 2019     David Templeton
Since the Federal Reserve began raising the Fed Funds rate in December 2015, there have been nine rate increases. Now that the Fed is in a pause mode, strategists and investors have turned their focus on rate cuts. It seems as though strategists believe the equity market and economy can not move ahead unless the Fed cuts interest rates. By now many have heard that every recession since World War I...

Passion

 June 7 2019     David Templeton
I recently ran across an article on the blog of Better Investing written by Vitaliy Katsenelsom, CFA and CEO of Investment Management Associates. When I first began publishing articles on our blog in 2006, Vitaliy was an individual who early on connected to some of my content from his blog, ContrarianEdge. Over time our careers paths varied but were driven by our passions. Vitaliy's writings conti...

There Are Some Positive Data Points

 May 30 2019     David Templeton
It seems much of the news being reported on the market and the economy lately is falling in the negative category. With both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index down a little over 5% in the month of May and with only one trading day remaining, highlighting the negative news might be somewhat attributable to confirmation bias. Nonetheless all the news is not negative.To hig...

Investors Increasingly Bullish On Stocks, But Outflows Continue From Equity Funds

 May 12 2019     David Templeton
This past week saw the AAII individual investor bullish sentiment move higher to 43.1%. This pushed the bullish reading above its average reading of 38.5% but still below the overly bullish +1 standard deviation level of 48.3%. The bullishness reading has been somewhat volatile of late resulting in the 8-period moving average remaining below 40% at 36.9%.This recent trend higher in investor bullis...

Hiring Continues To Lag Growth In Job Openings

 May 8 2019     David Templeton
In the recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the level of openings increased by 346,000, while job hires feel 35,000. Openings remain at a high level but began to decline starting in December last year. The fact hiring level is lagging the growth in openings is a sign companies are having a difficult time finding qualified individuals to fill open positions. This hiring difficulty is show...

Equity Fund And ETF Flows Remain Negative

 May 5 2019     David Templeton
Year to date combined mutual fund and ETF fund flows show investor continue to be net redeemers of equity funds, both international and U.S. domestic equities in the amount of $30.5 billion. Conversely, investors have been net purchasers of bond or fixed income investments. The flow data shown below is reported by the Investment Company Institute with a one week lag with last week's report represe...

Economic Expansion To Continue

 April 28 2019     David Templeton
Consuelo Mack interviews Nancy Lazar on a recent episode of Wealthtrack. Nancy Lazar is Co Founder, Partner & Head of Economic Research at Cornerstone Macro. Nancy Lazar is consistently ranked as one of the top economist by Institutional Investor.As covered in the interview, Nancy remains bullish on the U.S. economy and sees improvement in productivity and improvement in the labor force participat...

Dogs Of The Dow Lag Broader Market

 April 27 2019     David Templeton
With nearly a third of the year behind investors, following is an update on the performance of the Dogs of the Dow strategy. The Dogs of the Dow strategy is one where investors select the ten stocks that have the highest dividend yield from the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) after the close of business on the last trading day of the year. Once the ten stocks are determined...
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