HORAN Capital Advisors

Increasing Bullish Equity Sentiment And Declining Bond Prices

 October 5 2018     David Templeton
As of Wednesday's market close, the S&P 500 Index is up 11% on a year to date basis, while most bond strategies have struggled to breakeven at best. Longer term bonds have been the most challenged as evidenced in the below chart. The iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down 7.7% year to date. Through Wednesday's close, the 30-year U.S. Treasury is down 11.1% year to date. Of course, as int...

Inverted Yield Curve: Could This Time Be Different?

 October 4 2018     David Templeton
In our recent article, “Respect The Predictive Power Of An Inverted Yield Curve”, a colleague noted that investors ignore this highly reliable indicator at their own peril. Today, I will argue for why investors should perhaps ignore this highly reliable indicator because “it may be different this time”.To be clear, it may not be different this time, but it is always worth considering both sides o...

Small Caps And Cyclical Stock Sectors Underperforming

 October 3 2018     David Templeton
During the early part of this year quite a bit was written about the outperformance of small cap stocks versus large cap stocks. One commonly referenced reason for the outperformance was based on the trade and tariff issues and the potentially greater negative impact this would have on large cap stocks. It does seem though the trade issues are slowly being resolved and this headwind subsiding for ...

Strong Equity Inflows

 September 27 2018     David Templeton
Investors directed sizable investment fund flows towards equities for the week ending 9/19/2018 as reported by the Investment Company Institute (ICI) on 9/26/2018. Total equity inflows for that week equaled $10.2 billion dollars. This completely reversed the $10.4 billion net outflows reported over the prior seven weeks that ended 9/12/2018. Bonds continue to receive inflows as well and equaled $4...

Equity Market Performance Before And After The U.S. Midterm Election

 September 25 2018     David Templeton
September this year certainly seemed like an odd month. For example, the fifth business day of the month was Tuesday, September 10 as Labor Day in the U.S. was on Monday September 3. The first business day was September 4. The end of the month is this Friday, September 28. I mention this as the Presidential cycle is getting more attention since the mid term elections are a little more than a month...

Instilling Fear In Investors Via Charts

 September 16 2018     David Templeton
In the mid 1990's famed investor Peter Lynch stated, "Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves." With this quote in mind it seems a number of investment pundits are once again trying to sell fear regarding the current equity market. This morning I ran across the following chart on Twitter.S...

The Rules of the Family

 September 13 2018     Anna Pfaehler
One morning my then 4-year-old daughter, we’ll call her Bee, asked me “What are the rules of the family?” Kids have a way of asking you deep questions when you are least prepared. My quick answer was: Stick together Love each other Have fun These were all things she could understand given her limited scope of experiences and frame of referen...

Job Openings And Quits Rising At Faster Pace Than Job Hires

 September 11 2018     David Templeton
The Labor Department's release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTs) report this morning is further confirmation of a strong labor market. The NFIB Small Business Optimism report I highlighted earlier today also noted the difficulty small business are having in filling open job positions. The JOLTs report continues to show the number of job openings exceeding the number of unemployed indi...

New Record High For The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

 September 11 2018     David Templeton
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported that August's Small Business Optimism Index set a new record high at 108.8. The prior high mark for the index was set 45-years ago (July 1983) when the index reached 108. NFIB's President & CEO, Juanita Duggan, stated in the report,"Today’s groundbreaking numbers are demonstrative of what I’m hearing everyday from small business own...

Watch For A Peak In Consumer Sentiment

 August 31 2018     David Templeton
Utilizing sentiment measures in one's analysis is not an exact science. On the other hand, at their extremes, these sentiment measures do provide signals of a potential near term change in market and economic direction.  A number of 'investor sentiment' measures are available to evaluate, but I am highlighting only two below, the NAAIM Exposure Index and the American Association of Individual Inve...
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