HORAN Capital Advisors

Investor Sentiment Is Mixed But Trending More Bullish

 January 25 2020     David Templeton
The American Association of Individual Investors' Sentiment Survey release this week showed a continued trend towards more bullishness by individual investors. Bullish sentiment rose 3.8 percentage points to 45.6% and this is up from a low 21.4% in October of last year.The below chart shows the 12-month forward return (maroon line) at various bullish sentiment levels. It is when the bullish sentim...

Investing In An Elevated Market

 January 20 2020     David Templeton
Two years ago to the day on January 20, 2018 I wrote a post, Will The Stock Market Ever Decline Again?, and it seems in January 2020, investors are faced with the same question. Written commentary today is mirroring commentary of two years ago as January's market has gotten off to a strong start just like in 2018. Historically, strong starts to a January are a positive predictor for market returns...

Small Business Doing Its Part To Sustain Economic Growth

 January 14 2020     David Templeton
In August 2018 the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index hit a high of 108.8. Since then the NFIB Index has declined to 102.7 as reported in the December NFIB Small Business Optimism report today. In January 2018 though, the NFIB Index level was 101.2 and today's reading shows an improving trend. Noted in the December report was the fact "an increased number of small business owners reported better b...

Winter 2019 Investor Letter: A Recovery And New Decade

 January 8 2020     David Templeton
In the fourth quarter of 2019 the S&P 500 Index rose nearly 10% in contrast to 2018 where the Index was down 13.5%. What a difference a year can make. Our Winter 2019 Investor Letter looks at the Decade of 2000's versus the Decade of 2010's and certainly the most recently completed one was rewarding to investors. As the new year and decade unfold the market will grapple with headlines associated w...

Shocks And Market Impact

 January 5 2020     David Templeton
From time to time investors are faced with unanticipated shocks to the market. With tensions in the Middle East, and specifically Iran, elevated again, the market will undoubtedly react to events over the course of the next few days, weeks and months. Investors should know though, the shock and damage to the equity market from these shocks historically are short-lived.S&P Dow Jones Indices issued ...

Dow Dogs 2019 Return Unable To Keep Pace With Broader Market

 January 1 2020     David Templeton
First of all I want to wish everyone a Healthy and Prosperous New Year as a new decade unfolds. The  just completed decade certainly ended with a bang with the S&P 500 Index (SP500) up 31.49% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) up 25.34%. One strategy that significantly underperformed both the DJIA and the SP500 was the Dogs of the Dow investment strategy. Readers may recall from ear...

Just Own Something: Hyman & McLennan Global Outlook Part 2 Interview

 December 29 2019     David Templeton
Consuelo Mack of WealthTrack conducts Part 2 of her interview with Ed Hyman, Vice Chairman of Evercore and Matthew McLennan of First Eagle Investment Management. I published highlights and a link to Part I of the interview last week that focused on the U.S. outlook and below is the link to the Part 2 interview that focuses on the Global outlook. Not surprisingly, China gets a lot of attention from...

A Steeper Yield Curve Should Benefit Financial Stocks

 December 26 2019     David Templeton
In 2018 the Federal Reserve pursued an interest rate policy the led to the yield curve (10y/2y) inverting. This year the Federal Reserve Bank has reduced the Fed Funds rate three times in response to a slowing economy that developed in 2018. The last 25 basis point rate cut occurred in October and some now believe this may be the last cut of this cycle. Coinciding with the last cut was a paper rel...

Sentiment Tends To Provide Insight Into Future Market Returns

 December 25 2019     David Templeton
In investing no one metric tends to provide 100% certainty into the future direction of the market or individual stock or bond for that matter. Though sentiment measures do provide insight into the so-called mind of the market, or better yet the mind of the individual or institutional investor. This is one reason I report on sentiment and fund flows from time to time during the year.Last week I pr...

Top Economist Ed Hyman Has Favorable 2020 Outlook For The U.S.

 December 24 2019     David Templeton
WealthTrack's Consuelo Mack is in the midst of conducting her annual year end interview with Ed Hyman, Vice Chairman of Evercore and this year, Matthew McLennan of First Eagle Investment Management. Part I of the interview below focuses on the U.S. with a later Part 2 interview focusing on the international outlook. As noted by WealthTrack, "Ed Hyman is the Founder and Chairman of its Evercore ISI...
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