The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points to 101.8 for the month of September. Although this is the second decline in as many months, the Index remains at a high level. The NFIB report notes, "The survey shows no sign of a recession and indicated continued job creation, capital spending, and inventory investment, all consistent with solid, but slower growth."The single most import pro...

If readers glean one item from today's release of the American Association of Individual Investors'  Sentiment Survey release, investors are far from bullish. With sentiment measures being contrarian ones, all else being equal, this is a positive for the equity market. This week's survey saw the bullishness reading declined a little over four percentage points to 29.4% with most of this difference...

An important factor associated with writing blog content is it serves as a written record of one's thinking at certain points in time. It is often beneficial to go back and review one's thoughts and conclusions at these various points in time. If the conclusions that are drawn from one's writings turn out to be different than what was expected, understanding why is important going forward.I was cu...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index released this morning was largely a positive report in my view with the Index reported at 103.1, but down 1.6 points. The Index level remains in the top 15% of readings for the Optimism Index. Where the report shows weakness it is mostly in the expectations areas. For example, the survey notes, "optimism slipped because fewer owners said they expect [emphasis]...

It seems much of the discussion and commentary recently is focused on an imminent recession partly precipitated by the consequence of an inverted yield curve. The recent recession chatter reminded me of an article I wrote a little over two years about a recession forecast and market bubble that was headline news in 2012. Yes, recession talk was headline news in 2012. The article included a table s...

Two reports on consumer confidence were reported last week with The Conference Board's report early in the week. Continued strength was evident in the Conference Board's report with the reading coming in at a near record high for this expansion of 135.1. The reading exceeded the high end of the expectations range of 133. Then at the end of the week, the University of Michigan report on consumer se...

Thursday's release of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index (LEI) shows an increase in the LEI for July of .5%. This reverses the declines in May and June. Importantly, and as the Conference Board release highlights, "While the LEI suggests the US economy will continue to expand in the second half of 2019, it is likely to do so at a moderate pace." Although a moderate expansion ...

The market lost ground for the third consecutive week last week, down 2.93%. In spite of the recent weakness, equities continue to show respectable returns this year with the S&P 500 Index up 15.23%. Foreign stocks have not held up nearly as well and the emerging market index (green line) is only up 2% year to date so far in 2019.Maybe in part due to the decent U.S. returns, consumers continue to ...

On Wednesday the financial media would have one believe the world and market's would fall apart as a result of the 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve inverting, i.e., the 2-year yield moved to a higher level than the 10-year yield. The S&P 500 Index fell 2.93% on the day. The importance of the inversion is the fact the yield curve has some predictive power in recession forecasting. From a te...

Just as the market encountered an earnings recession in 2015/2016 due in part to the after effects of higher oil prices and a stronger US Dollar, current earnings reports show S&P 500 earnings growing at a low single digit pace. A large part of today's earnings slowdown is attributable to the tougher prior period comparisons resulting from the earnings improvement from the tax cut in late 2017. I ...