HORAN Capital Advisors

Spring 2020 Investor Letter: The Bears Woke Up

 April 9 2020     David Templeton
The first quarter was an unprecedented one as the S&P 500 Index decline was the fastest 30%+ sell-off ever. The market ultimately fell 33.9% from February 19 to its low on March 23, just 23 trading days. This occurred on the back of a strong 2019 where the S&P 500 Index was up 31.5% for the year. A strong start was underway for 2020 with the S&P 500 Index up 5.1% through February 19. The COVID-19 ...

NFIB Survey: Small Business Survival At Risk

 April 7 2020     David Templeton
Small businesses (less than 500 employees) account for around 50% of total private payrolls. The broad virus initiated and widely mandated "stay at home" orders across most states are having an extreme negative impact on small businesses, all business for that matter. In today's NFIB Small Business Optimism release, the Optimism Index fell 8.1 points to 96.4, the largest decline in the survey's hi...

Individual Investor Bullish Sentiment Surprisingly Not So Low

 March 28 2020     David Templeton
One factor we track on a periodic basis falls into the investor sentiment category. There are a number of sentiment measures one can evaluate on the institutional and individual investor level. The one that is weighing on our minds currently is the fact the individual investor bullish sentiment level has not reached a level one would expect in a market like the recent one. When the S&P 500 Index i...

Market Volatility May Create Opportunity

 March 28 2020     David Templeton
My blogging has been rather light the past few weeks as most of my effort has been focused on our clients' and reaching out to them during these uncertain times. I mostly write blog articles during the evenings and on the weekends and my wife has been hearing me say, "I want to get a blog post done."  So much to write about, but so much going on. With Ohio continuing under a 'stay at home' order, ...

One-Stop COVID-19 Resource Center

 March 24 2020     David Templeton
Blogging has been light given the fluid and volatile market environment resulting from the ongoing COVID-19 virus situation. Our firm continues to reach out to clients to provide insight and information they need during this unusual time. An outcome of our communication with clients and HORAN's broad reach across health care, investments, insurance and business in general, the firm has established...

Are We There Yet?

 March 12 2020     David Templeton
Some are equating the current market decline to the equity market decline that occurred in October 1987. Urban Carmel, who writes at The Fat Pitch highlighted in commentary on Twitter, the market's action in 1987:"the S&P 500 Index fell 20% in one day, rose 15% the next 2 days, then returned to the low the following week.""then rose 15% again and retested the original low 6 weeks later,""and final...

An Extreme Level Of Equity Market Fear

 March 9 2020     David Templeton
Can fear measures get to a level more extreme than today? They did during the great financial crisis (GFC), but we do not think the current environment is like the 2008/2009 market period. Near the equity market open this morning trading was halted for 15 minutes as the equity market circuit breaker was triggered with a 7% market decline. Then investors had to contend with a near 25% drop in oil p...

Coronavirus: Panic Leads To Pessimism

 March 8 2020     David Templeton
Don't get on an airplane, don't get on a train, don't get on a cruise ship, stock up on food and necessities, but don't go to public places where there might be crowds. The world is ending. The reaction to the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, outbreak appears to have moved into a panic over the situation. So one might ask why an investment person like myself is writing about this outbreak. The reason is m...

Broadening Fear Means Increasing Potential For V-Shape Market Recovery

 March 5 2020     David Templeton
A widening fear level across many sentiment measures increases the likelihood of a strong market bounce. I will not rehash the panic narrative I wrote about last weekend, but sentiment measures are becoming increasingly bearish.NAAIM Exposure Index: The NAAIM Exposure Index was reported at 29.03% this week, a 36 percentage point decline from the week earlier. The NAAIM Exposure Index consists of a...

Market Decline Driven By A Panic Narrative

 February 29 2020     David Templeton
If there is one factor most disappointing about the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, it is the panic narrative that seems to have overtaken a more rational narrative. This panic narrative is certainly contributing to the negative equity market reaction. In a tongue and cheek Saturday MarketWatch comment by Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, he notes one of the factors impacting the mar...
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