HORAN Capital Advisors

Entries for 2018

One Chart Will Not Predict The Next Recession

 June 6 2018     David Templeton
I had the fortune to read an article yesterday, Uh-oh: Unemployment Falls Below 4%, that noted,"On each occasion that the unemployment rate sank beneath 4%… recession was soon on tap. To remind, it now rests at 3.8%. But why should recession rapidly follow peak employment?"The article included the below chart and provided several reasons that would seem to justify the fact a recession is near when...

Record Levels Of Strength In Economic Sentiment Reports

 June 3 2018     David Templeton
As regular readers of this blog know, from time to time I opine on investor sentiment whether it is the AAII Sentiment Survey, the Investor Intelligence Advisors' Sentiment report or the NAAIM Exposure Index. At the moment, suffice to say that these 'investor' sentiment reports are neither overly bullish or overly bearish and conclusions drawn from them are most useful when the data are at extreme...

Only The Good News

 May 27 2018     David Templeton
As seems often the case, it is the bad news that leads headlines and garners the attention of those interested in digesting news reports. In the current economic environment though it seems somewhat difficult to promote the bad news when there seems little of it. I am not saying there is no bad news, but much of the news today that is related to the market and the economy is decidedly positive, ho...

Potential For A Stronger Second Half In Stocks

 May 26 2018     David Templeton
Seems as though much has taken place in the first five months of this year that is newsworthy and impactful to the markets, i.e. Iran, North Korea, tariffs, an increasing 10-year yield, and I could go on. With the volume of news flow though, the equity market has essentially traded sideways this year with the S&P 500 Index price return equaling just 1.78%.It seems with an equity market that has be...

Dollar Strength Leads To Large Cap Stock Outperformance

 May 20 2018     David Templeton
A recent strengthening of the US Dollar has some investment commentary now favoring small cap stocks over large cap stocks. This is partly due to the earnings headwind that can negatively impact multinational companies as they convert foreign earnings back into the Dollar. One recent report titled, Rising Treasury Yields And Dollar Completely Change Investment Themes, noted:"The resumption of the ...

Investor Sentiment Continues To Be Less Bullish

 May 3 2018     David Templeton
This week's Sentiment Survey report from the American Association of Individual Investors continues to show a falling trend in the level of bullishness of individual investors. This week's bullishness reading was reported at 28.4% and down from 36.9% in the prior week. The current bullishness reading is near the minus 1 standard deviation level and these sentiment measures are most useful as a con...

Heightened Volatility A Result Of The Change In The Earnings Growth Rate

 May 3 2018     David Templeton
Investors are experiencing a market exhibiting a higher level of volatility. This heightened volatility is more normal than the lack of volatility experienced in the few years leading up to 2018 and yet the S&P 500 Index is down less than 2% this year.Including the last two months of 2017 (November and December) the S&P 500 Index is up just less than 2%. Given some of the financial commentary one ...

Consumer In Decent Shape, A Positive For Continued Economic Growth

 April 25 2018     David Templeton
In spite of the market's negative reaction to some of the recent earnings reports issued by credit card companies, one might think the individual consumer is in pretty bad shape. To the contrary though. About a year ago I evaluated the consumer as a result of issues surrounding some of the credit card firms. As was the case in the earlier blog post, the consumer data today is indicative of a consu...

Dividend And Stock Buyback Growth Potentially Accelerate In 2018

 April 15 2018     David Templeton
Near the end of last month S&P Dow Jones Indices reported preliminary dividend and buyback activity for the S&P 500 Index for the fourth quarter of last year. For the quarter the dollar amount of dividends paid increased 5.4% versus the same quarter in the prior year. Additionally, for the quarter, dividends combined with buybacks increased 3.1% year over year. It is not uncommon for the combined ...

Sentiment Now Broadly Bearish

 April 12 2018     David Templeton
In prior posts highlighting investor sentiment data it has been noted that sentiment data is more actionable at market bottoms than at market tops. Knowing this, the American Association of Individual Investors reported bullish investors sentiment at 26.1%, which is below the minus 1 standard deviation level of the average bullish sentiment level.Additionally, bearish sentiment jumped 6.1 percenta...
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