HORAN Capital Advisors

Entries for 2018

A Strategy Based On Stock Buybacks Continues To Underperform

 August 5 2018     David Templeton
It seems one key focus of recent commentary has been the buyback activity by companies due to the cash flow benefit resulting from the tax cuts passed late last year.I have commented on the fact that the increased buyback activity could provide some support for the market and that may well be the case. What has not occurred though is broad outperformance in companies that are instituting buybacks....

François Trahan: Cycle Peak Leading To Change In Leadership

 August 5 2018     David Templeton
François Trahan, Co-Head of Portfolio Strategy at Cornerstone Macro, and named #1 in portfolio strategy in 8 out of the last 10 years by Institutional Investors Magazine, recently sat down for an interview with Consuelo Mack on WealthTrack. Whether one agrees or disagrees with his perspective, it is important insight to include in one's evaluation of the market. Much of François' investment thesis...

Is The Value Style Really In Favor Now?

 July 30 2018     David Templeton
It seems as though I have written a dozen or more articles on the value versus growth style during the current economic cycle. The extent to which growth has dominated has certainly been a little surprising. For most of the the equity market's upward move since the bottom of the financial crisis, the growth style of investment has dominated as seen in the below chart.In looking at a shorter time p...

Small Caps Beginning To Exhibit Weakness

 July 28 2018     David Templeton
Just returned from a week vacation on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and attempting to catch up on market events from last week as I stayed relatively disconnected from technology. The family drove from Ohio to the Outer Banks and if the traffic on the way there, as well as activity on OBX has any economic significance, the economy is strong.Confirming this strength were a few economic reports ...

Hard To Find Much Bad News

 July 19 2018     David Templeton
One could certainly say the current economic expansion is long in the tooth, i.e., second longest on record. As we also wrote in our summer Investor Letter, the headlines on news reports seem a lot worse than reality. Personally, I stopped tuning into the daily television business shows not too long ago as news headlines seem disconnected from actual economic and business results. Simply looking a...

Consumers Are Buying

 July 16 2018     David Templeton
If there is one takeaway from today's advanced retail sales report it is the consumer continues to buy. On a year over year basis total retail sales increased 6.6% as of the end of June. For the month, the actual increase was .5% and met consensus expectations. A large positive in the report was the .5% revision higher in May's .8% increase to a 1.3% increase. In Econoday's release covering the re...

Individual Investors Like The FANG's ex Alphabet

 July 15 2018     David Templeton
From time to time I review the top 10 stocks that are attracting the interest of members of Better Investing (BI). BI reports the information based on a review of transactions from the company's club accounting website as well as separate member transaction reports. The list has become a little less technology dominated since my last report in March this year. The FANG's ex Alphabet (GOOGL) contin...

Sentiment Is Widely Positive

 July 12 2018     David Templeton
Today's Sentiment Survey report from The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is further confirmation that sentiment results are widely positive. The AAII report shows bullish individual investor sentiment jumped 15.2 percentage points to 43.1% this week. Ten percentage points came from a decline in bearishness of 10.1 percentage points and a decline of 5.1 percentage points in the ...

Looking Under The Headline NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Level

 July 11 2018     David Templeton
One area that could show an early sign of weakness resulting from the trade/tariff headlines is in sentiment levels, specifically, sentiment of consumers and business. Just yesterday the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index report showed small businesses remain highly optimistic. The report noted,"The Small Business Optimism Index posted its sixth highest reading in survey history for the month of J...

Summer 2018 Investor Letter: A Recession In 2020?

 July 9 2018     David Templeton
The economy is not the stock market and vice versa, but positive economic data tends to be supportive of a positive equity market environment. The current environment seems a bit like a Goldilocks one and that might be a cause of concern for some. If one is a writer for business publications it is difficult to find a great deal of negative news. To that end recent articles are focused on predictin...
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