HORAN Capital Advisors

Entries for 2018

New Record High For The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

 September 11 2018     David Templeton
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported that August's Small Business Optimism Index set a new record high at 108.8. The prior high mark for the index was set 45-years ago (July 1983) when the index reached 108. NFIB's President & CEO, Juanita Duggan, stated in the report,"Today’s groundbreaking numbers are demonstrative of what I’m hearing everyday from small business own...

Watch For A Peak In Consumer Sentiment

 August 31 2018     David Templeton
Utilizing sentiment measures in one's analysis is not an exact science. On the other hand, at their extremes, these sentiment measures do provide signals of a potential near term change in market and economic direction.  A number of 'investor sentiment' measures are available to evaluate, but I am highlighting only two below, the NAAIM Exposure Index and the American Association of Individual Inve...

Respect The Predictive Power Of An Inverted Yield Curve

 August 25 2018     David Templeton
There are a few events in investing that have a high likelihood of being good predictors of the equity market's future direction, like, stock prices follow earnings, market breadth leads price, or an inverted yield curve leads economic weakness. One factor I believe the bears have missed in the recent market advance seems to be their discounting of the increasing strength of corporate earnings gro...

Yet To Break The Bull Market Record

 August 22 2018     David Templeton
I have been a bit lax in writing blog posts as client and investment responsibilities have taken precedence. On a day like today though, I feel compelled to type out a blog post recognizing today's record breaking bull market, or is it?For those believing today is a record breaking one, March 9, 2009 was the start of the current bull market; therefore, today represents the 3,453 day of the advance...

Near Record Small Business Optimism

 August 14 2018     David Templeton
As I review and highlight business and consumer optimism, I feel as though my thoughts are a bit like a broken record that plays the same song over and over again. With that, another business optimism survey is highly positive. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that small business optimism rose to the second highest level in the indexes history. The optimism index lev...

Is Korea Equity Market Weakness A Precursor To Weakness In U.S. Markets?

 August 11 2018     David Templeton
About a year ago I provided an update on the Korea Stock Exchange Index (KOSPI) and the fact it can serve as a leading indicator to U.S. equity market performance. As noted in that earlier post, I referenced noted economist, Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI, who believes the KOSPI index is a leading indicator of the global economy as South Korea's exports account for over 40% of the country's gross domest...

Another Highly Optimistic Business Owners' Survey

 August 10 2018     David Templeton
Many of the consumer and business sentiment surveys continue to be reported at or near record levels. I highlighted a few of these high level optimism surveys last month in a post titled, Sentiment Is Widely Positive. Earlier this week Gallup released the results of the quarterly Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index and Gallup noted, "small business owners are more optimistic than at any point ...

Sentiment Measures Not At Extremes

 August 9 2018     David Templeton
Keeping in mind sentiment data is contrarian in nature and most predictive at its extremes, today's American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey report shows bullish sentiment increased over seven percentage points to 36.36%. The plus and minus one standard deviation levels for the bullishness reading are 48% and 28%, respectively. Although the bullishness reading jumped higher in...

A Tight Labor Market Evidenced By Declining Jobless Claims

 August 9 2018     David Templeton
Further evidence of a tight labor market is seen in today's decline in weekly jobless claims to 213,000. This was the first decline in the last three weeks and the 4-week moving average of initial claims continues its trend lower. This report coincides with Tuesday's JOLT report that shows job openings continue to exceed job hires as well. Jobs are plentiful at the moment.

Job Openings Continue To Exceed Job Hires

 August 7 2018     David Templeton
Today's June Job Openings and Labor Turnover report once again shows job openings exceed the number of hires for the month by 1.0 million. This continued trend higher in openings versus hires is a sign employers continue to have difficulty filling open positions.Additionally, again in June, job openings continue to exceed the number individuals looking for employment. Openings increased to 6.662 m...
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