HORAN Capital Advisors

Entries for 2017

Market Is In An Uptrend And Trends Tend To Persist

 September 17 2017     David Templeton
One strategist I read regularly and who prepares weekly technical commentary, Charles Kirk at The Kirk Report, had a reference in this week's report relative to the strength of the current market. Kirk highlighted the below quote from James DePorre,"If you simply focus on what the pricing action is saying, then your job of profitably navigating the market becomes a lot less complex. The simple fac...

Stocks Need Some Healthy Competition

 September 16 2017     David Templeton
It seems a day does not go by where various strategists lament the market's valuation and lack of any significant pullback in over a year and a half. Not only are the valuations of a number of equity indices above their long term average, some might say the valuations are indicative of the speculative froth in the market. One data point highlighted is the margin debt level. Certainly margin debt h...

The Risk Of De-risking The Equity Portfolio

 September 15 2017     David Templeton
The unique aspect of the current U.S equity market has been the market's desire to move higher without any significant pullback. As the below chart shows, the last correction (double digit decline) occurred in early 2016 and culminated with a 13.3% decline ending February 11, 2016. Since the February correction, two other pullbacks of around 5% occurred around June 2016 and November 2016.So far th...

Spike Higher In Bullish Sentiment

 September 14 2017     David Templeton
In today's Sentiment Survey release by the American Association of Individual Investors, bullish sentiment jump twelve percentage points to 41.3%. All of the increase in bullish investor sentiment come from a 13.8 percentage point drop in bearish sentiment as can be seen in the second chart below.The bull/bear spread of 19.3 is the second highest of the year following early January's 20.97 bull/be...

S&P And MSCI May Change The Composition Of The Telecommunications Sector

 September 10 2017     David Templeton
In July of this year S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI announced they were considering making changes to the current GICS Telecommunications Sector. Any changes would be announced in November and go into effect in 2018. Currently, the telecommunications sector represents about 2% of the S&P 500 Index. S&P's and MSCI's intent is to broaden the composition of the sector and rename it Communications Ser...

Growth Outperforming Value And The Economic Cycle

 September 3 2017     David Templeton
One style of the market that has outperformed, except in 2016, has been growth type equities. In 2016 value outperformed growth with a value outperformance burst subsequent to the election. Value's outperformance essentially ended at the beginning of this year though.Also, higher quality companies as measured by S&P Dow Jones Indices Dividend Aristocrats, mostly outperformed for the two and half y...

Equity Market Nears Record High And Investors Become Less Bullish

 September 1 2017     David Templeton
As the equity market nears a record high, both institutional and individual investors continue to indicate they are less bullish. The NAAIM Exposure Index continues to decline with long equity exposure down to 77%.Yesterday's AAII Sentiment Survey report showed bullish sentiment fell another 3.1 percentage points to 25% and now is below the minus one standard deviation level for bullish sentiment....

DowDupont Will Be Included In Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

 August 26 2017     David Templeton
As many readers know, effective September 1, Dow Chemical (DOW) and DuPont (DD) will merge into one company, DowDupont (DWDP). Effective that same day, S&P Dow Jones Indices will replace DuPont, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, with DowDuPont. S&P notes,"Replacing du Pont with the new DowDuPont allows the Dow Jones Industrial Average to maintain its exposure to the Materials ...

Large Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment

 August 25 2017     David Templeton
This week's AAII Sentiment Survey reported a 6.1% decline in bullish investor sentiment to 28.1%. The bullish sentiment level is now near one standard deviation below the long term average. Nearly all of the decline in the bullish sentiment showed up in the bearish number which increased 5.5%. The bull/bear spread is now -10.4 percentage points.The NAAIM Exposure Index report this week also shows ...

Dr. KOSPI's Protocol For Global Growth Diagnosis

 August 20 2017     David Templeton
It has been about two weeks and market sentiment seems to have quickly turned decidedly bearish and the S&P 500 Index is down only 2.2% from its high. I will not list all the bearish commentary over the last few days, but we even pushed out some thoughts this weekend on our Twitter account (@HORANCapitalAdv) that leaned a little bearish. A couple of reasons for the increased bearishness might be t...
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