HORAN Capital Advisors

Entries for 2016

Investors Positioning For The Worst In U.S. Election Outcome

 November 3 2016     David Templeton
In five days the U.S. election will be behind us, absent a contested outcome. Through yesterday's close, the S&P 500 Index has been down seven consecutive days putting the Index down 4.2% from its August 15 close. This weakness in the markets is now showing up in technical indicators like the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio. At the close Wednesday, the equity put/call ratio was reported at .99 which is...

Bonds And Bond-Like Equities Adjusting To Higher Interest Rate Environment

 October 29 2016     David Templeton
The Federal Reserve meets during the first week of November to decide whether or not to increase interest rates. The probability of a rate hike in November stands at only 8.8% while increasing to 63.3% at the December meeting. With the elevated likelihood of an interest rate hike before year end, income focused investments, both fixed income and bond like equities, are adjusting to this potential ...

U.S. Government Has A Spending Problem

 October 27 2016     David Templeton
As of the end of the second quarter the U.S. government's budget deficit is once again widening and stands at $664 billion compared to $543 billion at the end of 2015. As can be seen in the below chart, government outlays as a percentage of GDP equals 22.4% and above the long run average of 20.3%. Additionally, government revenue as a percentage of GDP equals 18.8% versus the long run average of 1...

Fall 2016 Investor Letter: Time In The Market

 October 17 2016     David Templeton
In our recent published Fall 2016 Investor Letter, our commentary covers recent market related events, U.S. earnings, interest rates and the pending election. Emotions tend to run high during these times creating an environment that can drive investors to reduce their stock market exposure. The newsletter discusses the consequences these decisions can have on long-term returns. In our Summer 2016 ...

Slow Economic Growth Has Led To Weak Job Growth

 October 16 2016     David Templeton
One factor that has turned into 'normal' for this economic recovery is its slow rate of growth. Out of the eleven recoveries since 1949, the current one is the slowest, barely averaging above 2%.Source: The Wall Street JournalThis slow rate of growth has left a gap in potential economic output of nearly $3 billion. In percentage terms the economy's slow rate of growth has expanded 16% below its lo...

Positive Equity Markets In The Year After The Presidential Election

 October 12 2016     David Templeton
Absent an election year, equity markets generally trend higher until the seasonally weak September/October months. However, during an election year, equity market weakness tends to occur during the summer months and subside as the November election draws near. Historically, markets then rally into year-end. The market has followed this pattern so far this election year. As the below chart shows, ...

Investors Rotating Out Of Income Generating Equities

 October 9 2016     David Templeton
Since mid August the S&P 500 Index was down approximately 3% to mid September, but has recovered about 1.3% to Friday's close. The market seems to be having difficulty finding direction, trading mostly sideways since mid July, as can be seen in the below chart that includes the transport index as well.As I noted in a post in early September, transports began outperforming the S&P 500 Index at that...

Why We Sold Tyson Foods In September

 October 8 2016     David Templeton
At the end of September our research led us to sell Tyson Foods (TSN) common stock in our client accounts. Our firm relies heavily on fundamental research in our stock research in order to uncover buy and sell opportunities for our clients' portfolios. What led us to our sell decision was not the direct reason TSN was down nearly 9% on Friday, but an indirect one.As background, our firm added TSN ...

Inspite Of Decline In Buybacks, Aggregate 'As Reported Earnings' Continue To Increase

 October 7 2016     David Templeton
Last week S&P Dow Jones Indices reported preliminary aggregate data on buybacks, dividends and earnings for the quarter ending June 30, 2016. Of note in the second quarter is buybacks declined 21% versus Q1 2016 and down 3.1% versus Q2 2015. Importantly, as reported earnings increased for the third consecutive quarter increasing to $201.79 billion versus $189.37 billion in Q1 2016. Dividends of $9...

More Signs Of An Earnings Recovery Unfolding

 October 2 2016     David Templeton
As I have noted in recent posts, an earnings recovery seems to be unfolding. Increasingly, more data continues to point to this earnings recovery over the course of the next twelve months. On Friday, the Economic Cycle Research Institute released data on its proprietary Weekly Leading Index. A variation of this same index is the Leading Growth Index (WLIg). As the following chart shows, the WLIg t...
Page 3 of 11First   Previous   1  2  [3]  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  Next   Last