Week Ahead Magazine For August 17, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 17, 2014
After the market's close this past Tuesday we wrote a post discussing how the market technicals had turned more positive and the market did not disappoint. For this past week the equity market did turn higher with the major U.S. indices posting weekly gains. The standout was the Nasdaq Composite Index returning 2.2% and now up 6.9% on the year. The much watched small cap index, the Russell 2000, managed to generate a gain of .9%; however, the index remains down 1.9% year to date. Last week's new...
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Market Technicals Turn More Positive

Posted by David Templeton on Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Short term technicals for the S&P 500 Index have turned more positive after the market's recent pullback. As the below chart shows, the 100 day moving average has served as important support for the market over the past year and a half. Each time the market has experienced a pullback, the market has managed to bounce off of the 100 day moving average line. Additionally, the full stochastic oscillator has begun to turn higher from an oversold level. The vertical dotted lines on the chart display ...
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Week Ahead Magazine For August 10, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Monday, August 11, 2014
Last week saw the market's trading action gravitate from positive to negative during the week until Friday. The chart to the right shows the daily changes in various market indices with Friday's sharp bounce back. A question for this week will be whether last Friday's trading bounce signals a bottom in the market's recent decline.Today pre-market futures are indicating a positive start to the trading week. This comes on the heals of positive market performance in global markets on Monday. One ar...
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Bond Funds Continue To See Inflows

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 10, 2014
Last week's mostly negative market, until the sharp recovery on Friday, continues to negatively influence investor's market sentiment. Last week's American Association of Individual Investors reported bullish investor sentiment fell slightly to 30.9%. This bullishness level is nearly nine percentage points below the long term average of 39%.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsSource: AAIIAn interesting factor reported in the Sentiment Survey was the 7.1% increase in bearish sentiment to 38.2%...
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Currency Adjusted Returns Matter When Investing In Foreign Markets

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, August 07, 2014
Almost a year and a half ago the Bank of Japan stated it would embark on a massive stimulus plan, i.e., quantitative easing, that would amount to the equivalent of $107 billion US dollars. Many strategists have taken a positive view of this effort by Japan to stimulate the country's economy. The near term, immediate impact to Japan's stock market at that time, the Nikkei 225 Index, was a dramatic move to the upside. As the below chart shows (two year time frame), the Nikkei was up over 80% from ...
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Why To Invest In Stocks

Posted by David Templeton on Wednesday, August 06, 2014
I wrote an article this past weekend that provided a link to an interview with Jason Trennert conduct by Consuelo Mack of WealthTrack. The theme of the interview and the post is the belief there currently is no alternative for investors other than stocks. My article was republished on Seeking Alpha and a reader responded with several comments and questions. I responded to his questions and the reader thought the response was worthy of an article of its own. Below are the reader's questions/comme...
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Massive Bearish Put Volume On Friday May Have Been An Error

Posted by David Templeton on Monday, August 04, 2014
Over the weekend we noted the big spike in the put/call ratio to 1.04. Generally, when the put/call ratio exceeds 1.0, from a contrarian perspective, this overly bearish activity can be a positive for stock prices. Was the increased volume an error?Reuters is reporting the trades could be an error. In the article lead in they note, n">"A barrage of bearish options contracts costing an estimated $8 million and set to expire worthless in a few hours were purchased across multiple stocks Friday aft...
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Dividend Payers Underperformed In July

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 03, 2014
Much is made by some investment managers that dividend payers hold up well in market downturns. Generally, we would agree that is the case; however, this performance advantage does not always bear out and one must look at the underlying cash flow of individual companies. A case in point is the performance of the payers in July.As the below table shows the average performance of the payers underperformed the non-payers by almost two full percentage points. On a year to date basis the average retu...
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Week Ahead Magazine: August 3, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 03, 2014
With July in the books, investors experienced the negatives of what tends to be a weak seasonal period for the equity markets. The worst performing segment of the U.S. market continued to be the pullback in small company stocks as represented by the Russell 2000 index. Small caps declined 7.3% in July while the larger cap stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index fell 2.8%. Small caps are now down 4.2% year to date while the S&P 500 Index remains higher by 4.2%.For the most part economic news this...
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No Alternative Other Than Stocks

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, August 02, 2014
Consuelo Mack of WealthTrack recently interviewed Jason Trennert, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas Research Partners. As WealthTrack notes, "Trennert is widely followed by institutional investors in the money management and hedge fund world, and is identified as one of “Wall Street’s Best Minds” by Barron’s."In the interview, Trennert believes several factors are leaving investors with no investment alternatives other than stocks. Two reasons he cites are one, fina...
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