September Returns: Practically No Place To Hide

Posted by David Templeton on Wednesday, October 01, 2014
If there is one positive to the close of the month of September it is the fact investors can turn the page and set their sights on October and the fourth quarter. September has historically been the worst performing month in a calendar year and this is even truer when the prior month of August achieves returns greater than 3%. In fact, August of this year saw the S&P 500 Index return 3.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average return 3.2%. At the start of September, Ryan Detrick wrote an article, ...
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Dow Dogs Outperforming Dow And S&P 500 Indices

Posted by David Templeton on Monday, September 29, 2014
As investor may realize, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has significantly underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index on a year to date basis. The S&P 500 Index is up 7.00% on a price only basis while the Dow Jones Index is higher by only 2.98%. Because the Dow index is a price weighted index, companies in the index with higher stock prices have a larger impact on the Dow index performance. Consequently, higher priced stocks in the Dow have trailed the broader market. For example,Boeing (BA), wit...
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Week Ahead Magazine: Fear Headlines - September 28, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 28, 2014
After reading some of the market headlines last week, one would have thought the market experienced some type of terrible correction. A couple of headlines from CNBC that are shown below mention the market "springs back after rout" and market "sinks, fear surges." For the week, the S&P 500 Index was down 1.4% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined only 1%.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsOn Thursday, September 18, 2014, the S&P 500 Index hit a closing high of 2,011.36. So, after t...
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Buybacks Decline 27% In Second Quarter

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, September 27, 2014
Earlier this week S&P Dow Jones Indices released their buyback report for the S&P 500 Index. Of note was the 27% decline in buyback value in the second quarter versus the first quarter of 2014. Even on a year over year basis (Q2 2014 versus Q2 2013) buybacks declined 1.6%. Some important highlights from the buyback report:"For the 12 months ending June 2014, S&P 500 issues increased their buyback expenditures by 26.6% to $533.0 billion from the $420.9 billion posted during the corresponding twel...
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Week Ahead Magazine: September 21, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 21, 2014
A fairly eventful week last week with the Fed's policy decision essentially leaving rates unchanged and retaining the "considerable time" language in its rate announcement. Alibaba's (BABA) IPO was one for the record books in terms of size. Before investors jump in to buy the stock they should read Aswath Damodaran's commentary on the corporate structure of BABA. With those two items now in the rear-view mirror, the market managed to generate mostly positive returns last week. The one segment of...
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The Myth Of High Structural Unemployment

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 21, 2014
It has been almost a year since taking a look at the Beveridge Curve. In the earlier posts we noted the curve compares the unemployment rate with the job vacancy rate. The job vacancy measure we have used in prior posts is the data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS report. The limitation of the JOLTS report is data only began to be collected in December 2010. The importance of the Beveridge Curve analysis is the graph provides insight into potential structural unemployment...
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Implications Of A Strengthening Dollar And Foreign Sales For S&P 500 Companies

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, September 20, 2014
In a recently released report by S&P Dow Jones Indices and authored by Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst, an analysis is provided for the sales generated outside the U.S. for S&P 500 companies. Although the reporting of foreign sales data is less than complete, S&P's report provides detail on the 239 companies that do provide foreign sales data. The report provides a comprehensive discussion on the companies used in the analysis with a snapshot provided below.From The Blog of HORAN Capita...
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Week Ahead Magazine: September 14, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 14, 2014
Although much of the economic news last week came in on the positive side, the major U.S. indices were unable to move to the upside. As we noted in our earlier post today, September And Beyond, investors seem focused on the Fed meeting this week and the Fed's viewpoint on the economy and timing of interest rate increases. In spite of the market pullback last week, the S&P 500 Index is down only 1.1% from the high reached on September 5th.Potential market moving economic news in the coming week:I...
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September And Beyond

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 14, 2014
Taking a look at some technical and fundamental data points that have evolved in September, below we provide insight into our thoughts on the market over the next few quarters.We look at a number of technical indicators, i.e., charting technicals, in an effort to gain some insight into investors' trading sentiment. A number of recent technical indicators have, what we would call, rolled over, which is a negative from a short term market direction point of view. As the below chart indicates, both...
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Risk Versus Volatility

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 07, 2014
Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital Markets released his most recent client letter, Risk Revisted. As Marks notes in his letter, he dedicated three chapters of his book, The Most Important Thing, on the subject of risk. In his client letter, he expands on risk and discusses 24 different forms of risk. A couple of highlights from his client letter:There’s little I believe in more than Albert Einstein’s observation: “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be c...
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