How To Profit From An Increase In Oil Prices When It Occurs

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, January 29, 2015
One investment vehicle that may seem appropriate for participating in an eventual rise in crude oil prices is to invest in an ETF that directly tracks crude oil itself. One such ETF is the United States Oil ETF, ticker USO. There are many others that can be found here. However, investors should be aware that many of these ETFs gain crude oil exposure using futures contracts. Consequently, the ETFs using futures will not track oil prices directly. Several key points investors should be aware of r...
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Investor Letter Winter 2014: Expectations In The Coming Year

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, January 24, 2015
We recently published our final Investor Letter for 2014. In the letter we take a look at the market and economy in 2014 and our outlook for 2015. As we comment in the newsletter, investors will be faced with a number of issues in 2015, oil price volatility, currency issues, stimulus programs around the world, just to name a few factors. January has already started with market volatility that me be unsettling to investors. For further insight into our views for 2015, our Investor Letter can be a...
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Bullish Sentiment Declines But Not At An Extreme Level

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, January 22, 2015
The American Association of Individual Investors released their Sentiment Survey results for the week ending 1/21/2015. Bullish sentiment declined nine percentage points to 37.1% with all of the change going to the bearish camp. Bearish sentiment increased 9+ percentage points. As the below chart shows, this places the bullish sentiment near the average for this reading. Investors should keep in mind this contrarian sentiment indicator is most predictive of future market direction when readings ...
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Four Consecutive Weeks Down For Equity Market Not A Common Occurrence

Posted by David Templeton on Monday, January 19, 2015
Since the end of the financial crisis, or better yet, the market bottom in March 2009, weekly market declines for the S&P 500 Index lasting four consecutive weeks or longer have been a somewhat rare occurrence. The most recent string of four consecutive weekly declines occurred the week of September 22, 2014 through the week of October 13, 2014. Prior to this 2014 four week decline, the last string of four consecutive weekly declines occurred in 2011 (7/25/2011 - 8/15/2011). Since the beginning ...
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Week Ahead Magazine: A Central Bank Throws In The Towel

Posted by David Templeton on Monday, January 19, 2015
Investors paying attention to the market last week witnessed something they may not see for the balance of their lives. The Swiss National Bank's surprise announcement that it would no longer try to maintain the Swiss Franc's currency peg resulted in the Franc/Euro exchange rate falling nearly 30% in a single day. In actuality, the collapse occurred within seconds of the announcement. This type of currency move speaks volumes about the unintended consequences of the quantitative easing programs ...
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Hyman & Kim: U.S. Pulling Global Economies

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, January 18, 2015
One comment mentioned of late is the U.S. economy may be decoupling from the rest of the world economies. In Part 2 of Ed Hyman's and John Kim's interview (Part I of Interview) with Consuelo Mack on Wealthtrack, both Hyman and Kim believe it is not possible for the U.S. economy to decouple from the rest of the world at this point in time. The globalization of trade and manufacturing has created an interconnectedness that will be difficult to break. Both Hyman and Kim believe, however, that the e...
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Shale Oil And Gas Production Projected To Increase In February

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, January 17, 2015
The battle between OPEC and shale fracking producers has pushed the price of oil down to levels unthinkable just a year ago. Both parties seem unwilling to reduce production to levels that would stem the decline in oil prices. This lower price level is certainly placing financial stress on a number of drillers and leveraged fracking companies as noted in the article, Money Dries Up for Oil and Gas, Layoffs Spread, Write-Offs Start.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsIn spite of the apparent d...
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Ed Hyman: Bull Market In Early Stage

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, January 11, 2015
Ed Hyman, Chairman of Evercore ISI, has been ranked the #1 economist by Institutional Investor for an unprecedented 35 consecutive years. In a recent interview he participated in with Conseulo Mack of WealthTrack, Ed Hyman provides his outlook for the economy and markets in 2015. In one portion of the interview below, he believes the economy and equity markets are in their early stages of recovery. One fact he noted is many of the cyclical components of the economy are where they would be at the...
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Dividend Payers Underperformed Non Payers In 2014 And Equal Weighted Risk

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, January 10, 2015
The chase for yield in 2014 did not lead to the dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index to outperform the non-payers. As the below table shows, the average return of the payers, 14.99%, fell just short of the average return of the non-payers that generated a return of 15.44%. The average return for both categories though did beat the cap weighted return of the overall S&P 500 Index.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsSource: S&P Dow Jones IndicesJim Paulsen, Ph.D., Chief Investment Strategist at...
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Week Ahead Magazine: A Week Of Outlooks For 2015

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, January 04, 2015
Much of the focus in this week's magazine are links to various commentaries on the market and economic outlook for 2015. As one considers investment changes, the following quote might be appropriate in guiding potential changes.“The riskiest moment is when you’re right. That’s when you’re in the most trouble, because you tend to overstay the good decisions. So, in many ways, it’s better not to be so right. That’s what diversification is for. It’s an explicit recognition of ignorance. And I view ...
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