HORAN Capital Advisors

Positive Job Market Developments: Openings And Quit Rate Are Increasing

 April 10 2021     David Templeton
Earlier this week the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was released showing job openings continued to increase. For the February period job openings equal nearly 7.4 million and is approaching the peak job openings level of 7.5 million reached in late 2018. This represents a positive sign that economic activity is increasing and businesses are experiencing increasing demand;...

Individual Investor Sentiment Is Elevated

 April 8 2021     David Templeton
TheĀ  American Association of Individual Investors reported a jump in bullish sentiment to 56.9%. This is the highest bullishness level since the reading reached 59.7% for the weekly reporting period ending January 4, 2018. As the below chart shows, higher levels of bullishness have a tendency to occur near market tops; however, the pullbacks can be brief or short lived. Also, bullish sentiment can...

So Far, A Better Year For The Dogs Of The Dow

 April 3 2021     David Templeton
In 2020 the Dogs of the Dow strategy significantly lagged the return of the broader S&P 500 Index. For the 2020 calendar year the Dow Dogs returned a minus 8% versus the S&P 500 Index return of 18.4%. Several factors led to the Dow Dog underperformance. First, the 2020 Dow Dogs held two energy stocks out of the total ten stock portfolio. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was down 36% and Chevron (CVX) w...

A Change In Equity Market Leadership Is A Positive

 March 31 2021     David Templeton
One favorable aspect of the current equity market is the broader favorable performance across a wider range of asset classes and investment styles. I wrote about this in mid September last year and at the time raised the question whether this rotation or change in leadership had more room to run. The below chart clearly shows that a shift in leadership has carried through the first quarter of this...

The Consumer Is Spending, A Major Driver To The Economic Recovery

 March 30 2021     David Templeton
As is often said actions speak louder than words and with the consumer at the moment, both survey results and spending activity are moving in the same direction. The consumer accounts for 70% of GDP or the economy, so as the consumer goes, so goes the economy. Today's Conference Board Consumer Confidence reading for March is reported at 109.7, up from 90.4 in the previous month. Consumer confidenc...

Oil Inventory Level Remains High Potentially Limiting Steeper Rise In Energy Prices

 March 14 2021     David Templeton
A number of factors will influence the price of oil over time, but the supply level and active rig count provide useful insight. Other variables come into play as well, like Middle East conflicts and the level of the U.S. Dollar. The price of West Texas Crude has increased from around $15 per barrel in April of 2020 to its current $66 per barrel. On the surface it seems oil inventory levels are at...

Equity Market May Be Entering A Period Of Further Strength

 March 7 2021     David Templeton
Going back to 2016 I was writing about the current bull market that began in 2013 and how it resembled the bull market of the 1950's and 1980's. At the time of those earlier posts I certainly did not foresee the pandemic and a .5% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Nonetheless, as this current recovery unfolds, a rise in the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield has occurred and may continue. Higher intere...

Earnings Growth Supports Strong Equity Market Advance

 March 6 2021     David Templeton
Fourth quarter 2020 earnings reports are nearing an end as 495 companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported results. Refinitiv's report dated March 5, 2020 notes results have come in better than history. Nearly 80% of companies have reported earnings above analyst estimates, exceeding the long-term average of 65%. Expectations for the next two quarters shows earnings growth accelerating with the s...

Spiking The Punch Bowl

 March 5 2021     David Templeton
A nearly $2 trillion Covid relief package is working its way through Congress. There is differing commentary about the amount of the stimulus that is going to "Covid" relief, but assuming much of it is relief in some form or the other, how does it get spent? Is the relief targeted? In aggregate the stimulus that has been sent to individuals prior to this most recent package does not all seem to ha...

Economically Sensitive Stock Market Sectors Lead Performance

 March 3 2021     David Templeton
A look at S&P 500 Index sector returns after the market close on Thursday shows since the March 23, 2020 low, energy is the top performing sector up 117.6% and followed by materials and financials. The industrial and technology sectors round out the top five performing sectors as seen below.On a year to date basis, again, energy is the top performing sector up 31.7% followed by financials, communi...
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