HORAN Capital Advisors

Hiring Pace Continues To Lag Job Openings Growth

 October 17 2018     David Templeton
If job openings are an indication of the economy's strength, yesterday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTs) report is confirmation of economic strength. Job openings reached another record high of 7.136 million. Compared to last August's openings of 6.044 million, openings are up 18.1% on a year over year basis.The timing of the unemployment data is one month ahead of the JOLTs data, however,...

Pullbacks, Fear And Opportunity

 October 12 2018     David Templeton
From early 2016 to early 2018 the S&P 500 Index moved higher with very little downside volatility. As the below chart shows, that stretch of time was an abnormally long one in terms of very little downside market move. One consequence of this low volatility period is many investors' began to believe the equity market does not go down. In reality, a low volatility market is not normal though. Havin...

Large Decline In Bullish Sentiment

 October 11 2018     David Templeton
Today's Sentiment Survey release by the American Association of Individual Investors reported a  15.1 percentage point decline in bullish sentiment. Of course this report comes one day after the 800+ drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. Two-thirds of the decline moved to the bearish camp with the other one-third moving to the neutral category. When all is said and done, the three catego...

A Favorable Small Business Environment

 October 9 2018     David Templeton
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for the month of September was reported at 107.9 and just slightly missed consensus expectations of 108.0 for the month. Also, the Index declined .9 points from the recording setting 108.8 reported in August. However, the September reading represents the third highest reading recorded in the 45-year history of the Small Business Optimism Index. In short small...

Equity Put/Call Ratio Approaching Overly Bearish Level

 October 7 2018     David Templeton
Not too long ago the concern around interest rates was the fact the yield curve was flattening and the Fed's rate hikes might end up inverting the interest rate curve by pushing short rates above long term rates. This past week though the focus seems to have shifted to a quickly rising long term 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate and a resulting steepening of the yield curve.Following are several article ...

Increasing Bullish Equity Sentiment And Declining Bond Prices

 October 5 2018     David Templeton
As of Wednesday's market close, the S&P 500 Index is up 11% on a year to date basis, while most bond strategies have struggled to breakeven at best. Longer term bonds have been the most challenged as evidenced in the below chart. The iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down 7.7% year to date. Through Wednesday's close, the 30-year U.S. Treasury is down 11.1% year to date. Of course, as int...

Inverted Yield Curve: Could This Time Be Different?

 October 4 2018     David Templeton
In our recent article, “Respect The Predictive Power Of An Inverted Yield Curve”, a colleague noted that investors ignore this highly reliable indicator at their own peril. Today, I will argue for why investors should perhaps ignore this highly reliable indicator because “it may be different this time”.To be clear, it may not be different this time, but it is always worth considering both sides o...

Small Caps And Cyclical Stock Sectors Underperforming

 October 3 2018     David Templeton
During the early part of this year quite a bit was written about the outperformance of small cap stocks versus large cap stocks. One commonly referenced reason for the outperformance was based on the trade and tariff issues and the potentially greater negative impact this would have on large cap stocks. It does seem though the trade issues are slowly being resolved and this headwind subsiding for ...

Strong Equity Inflows

 September 27 2018     David Templeton
Investors directed sizable investment fund flows towards equities for the week ending 9/19/2018 as reported by the Investment Company Institute (ICI) on 9/26/2018. Total equity inflows for that week equaled $10.2 billion dollars. This completely reversed the $10.4 billion net outflows reported over the prior seven weeks that ended 9/12/2018. Bonds continue to receive inflows as well and equaled $4...

Equity Market Performance Before And After The U.S. Midterm Election

 September 25 2018     David Templeton
September this year certainly seemed like an odd month. For example, the fifth business day of the month was Tuesday, September 10 as Labor Day in the U.S. was on Monday September 3. The first business day was September 4. The end of the month is this Friday, September 28. I mention this as the Presidential cycle is getting more attention since the mid term elections are a little more than a month...
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