HORAN Capital Advisors

Near Record Small Business Optimism

 August 14 2018     David Templeton
As I review and highlight business and consumer optimism, I feel as though my thoughts are a bit like a broken record that plays the same song over and over again. With that, another business optimism survey is highly positive. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that small business optimism rose to the second highest level in the indexes history. The optimism index lev...

Is Korea Equity Market Weakness A Precursor To Weakness In U.S. Markets?

 August 11 2018     David Templeton
About a year ago I provided an update on the Korea Stock Exchange Index (KOSPI) and the fact it can serve as a leading indicator to U.S. equity market performance. As noted in that earlier post, I referenced noted economist, Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI, who believes the KOSPI index is a leading indicator of the global economy as South Korea's exports account for over 40% of the country's gross domest...

Another Highly Optimistic Business Owners' Survey

 August 10 2018     David Templeton
Many of the consumer and business sentiment surveys continue to be reported at or near record levels. I highlighted a few of these high level optimism surveys last month in a post titled, Sentiment Is Widely Positive. Earlier this week Gallup released the results of the quarterly Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index and Gallup noted, "small business owners are more optimistic than at any point ...

Sentiment Measures Not At Extremes

 August 9 2018     David Templeton
Keeping in mind sentiment data is contrarian in nature and most predictive at its extremes, today's American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey report shows bullish sentiment increased over seven percentage points to 36.36%. The plus and minus one standard deviation levels for the bullishness reading are 48% and 28%, respectively. Although the bullishness reading jumped higher in...

A Tight Labor Market Evidenced By Declining Jobless Claims

 August 9 2018     David Templeton
Further evidence of a tight labor market is seen in today's decline in weekly jobless claims to 213,000. This was the first decline in the last three weeks and the 4-week moving average of initial claims continues its trend lower. This report coincides with Tuesday's JOLT report that shows job openings continue to exceed job hires as well. Jobs are plentiful at the moment.

Job Openings Continue To Exceed Job Hires

 August 7 2018     David Templeton
Today's June Job Openings and Labor Turnover report once again shows job openings exceed the number of hires for the month by 1.0 million. This continued trend higher in openings versus hires is a sign employers continue to have difficulty filling open positions.Additionally, again in June, job openings continue to exceed the number individuals looking for employment. Openings increased to 6.662 m...

A Strategy Based On Stock Buybacks Continues To Underperform

 August 5 2018     David Templeton
It seems one key focus of recent commentary has been the buyback activity by companies due to the cash flow benefit resulting from the tax cuts passed late last year.I have commented on the fact that the increased buyback activity could provide some support for the market and that may well be the case. What has not occurred though is broad outperformance in companies that are instituting buybacks....

François Trahan: Cycle Peak Leading To Change In Leadership

 August 5 2018     David Templeton
François Trahan, Co-Head of Portfolio Strategy at Cornerstone Macro, and named #1 in portfolio strategy in 8 out of the last 10 years by Institutional Investors Magazine, recently sat down for an interview with Consuelo Mack on WealthTrack. Whether one agrees or disagrees with his perspective, it is important insight to include in one's evaluation of the market. Much of François' investment thesis...

Is The Value Style Really In Favor Now?

 July 30 2018     David Templeton
It seems as though I have written a dozen or more articles on the value versus growth style during the current economic cycle. The extent to which growth has dominated has certainly been a little surprising. For most of the the equity market's upward move since the bottom of the financial crisis, the growth style of investment has dominated as seen in the below chart.In looking at a shorter time p...

Small Caps Beginning To Exhibit Weakness

 July 28 2018     David Templeton
Just returned from a week vacation on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and attempting to catch up on market events from last week as I stayed relatively disconnected from technology. The family drove from Ohio to the Outer Banks and if the traffic on the way there, as well as activity on OBX has any economic significance, the economy is strong.Confirming this strength were a few economic reports ...
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