HORAN Capital Advisors

A Continued Surge In Small Business And Consumer Optimism

 December 12 2017     David Templeton
Sentiment for both consumers and small businesses continues to soar. Today the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was reported at 107.5. I highlighted the surge in consumer sentiment at the end of November.NFIB notes in its report,"Not since the roaring Reagan economy has small business optimism been as high as it was in November, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)...

Earnings, Not Multiple Expansion, The Key To Favorable 2018 Equity Returns

 December 10 2017     David Templeton
It seems like an eternity since the S&P 500 Index experienced a pullback of more than 5%. In fact, the last greater than 5% pullback occurred over a year ago during the period of June 8, 2016 to June 27, 2016. This lack of downside volatility has taken place during a nearly uninterrupted increase in the market that began in February last year. Additionally, the market advance since the end of the ...

Strong Corporate Profit Picture A Key Component In Today's GDP Report

 November 29 2017     David Templeton
Included with today's second estimate GDP report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is the preliminary estimate for third quarter corporate profits. The corporate profit measure is reported in several different formats, i.e. with and without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. As I noted in a June post, more information on the adjustments can be found can be found in this BEA ...

Soaring Consumer Confidence

 November 28 2017     David Templeton
Consumer confidence soared to a 17-year high in The Conference Board's report today. High levels of consumer confidence tend to translate to an improved retail sales environment as can be seen in the below chart. With consumers accounting for approximately 70% of economic (GDP) activity, today's confidence report portends a positive retail sales environment during the holiday shopping season.On th...

The Sentiment Cycle Phase: "Buy The Dip"

 November 26 2017     David Templeton
Aside from fundamental market data, the equity market tends to follow a sentiment cycle as described by Justin Mamis, a famed market technician and author, who wrote several books on technical analysis. One of his books, The Nature of Risk, contains a discussion on the equity market's sentiment cycle. Below is The Sentiment Cycle chart included in The Nature of Risk.In The Nature of Risk Mamis not...

Answering Market Questions Over Thanksgiving

 November 25 2017     David Templeton
In addition to receiving a few questions about Bitcoin from a few relatives over Thanksgiving, the other common question/comment was "can you believe this stock market, how long can it last." I confess I do not believe in market timing nor do I have a crystal ball; however, that does not mean one should put their head in the sand and ignore important market signals. Aside from the importance of mo...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights Tight Labor Market

 November 19 2017     David Templeton
Last week NFIB's October report on Small Business Optimism fell short of expectations, but remained at a high level at 103.8 versus 103 in the prior report. A few highlights from the report:"The tight labor market got tighter for small business owners last month, continuing a year-long trend. Fifty-nine percent of owners said they tried to hire in October, with 88 percent of them reporting no or f...

Are Bearish Investor Sentiment Responses Translating Into Actual Action?

 November 18 2017     David Templeton
The S&P 500 Index is only down .60% from its November 8, 2017 high yet individual investor and institutional equity sentiment has turned significantly less positive. This negative sentiment has not translated into broadly lower equity prices though, but knowing sentiment measures are contrary indicators, they are approaching levels that would be suggestive of higher equity prices ahead.In this wee...

Equity Corrections Will Occur Again, Maybe Sooner Than One Expects

 November 12 2017     David Templeton
If there is one factor that perplexes me about the current market environment it is the lack of volatility since the election. The last time the market experienced a greater than 5% correction was in June of 2016 and the last double digit pullback was in February 2016. Going back to 1980 the average intra-year market decline for the S&P 500 Index is 14.1%. I have written a number of recent posts o...

If History Repeating; Another Five Years For Equity Bull Market

 November 10 2017     David Templeton
Shortly after the 2016 election in a post titled, Equity Market Beginning To Resemble Bull Market Of The 1950's And 1980's, I discussed how the equity market continued to trace a similar path as the market in the those two earlier decades. A part of my conclusion indicated the anticipated policies under a Trump administration would resemble policies implemented in the 1950's and 1980's, like tax r...
Page 1 of 85First   Previous   [1]  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  Next   Last