HORAN Capital Advisors

Dividend Paying Strategies Have Lagged This Year, Now An Opportunity?

 October 19 2020     David Templeton
One unique aspect of the difficult economic environment that followed the virus mandated shutdown, was the underperformance of high quality dividend paying stocks. From the S&P 500 Index peak in mid February to the bottom on March 23, 2020, one of the weakest performing asset classes was dividend paying stocks. As the below chart shows, the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY), the SPDR Dividend ETF ...

Consumer Data Suggests A Continued Strengthening Of The Economy

 October 18 2020     David Templeton
There is no denying the consumer has been a surprising bright spot during the pandemic. Government financial support programs have certainly contributed to favorable consumer sentiment. This positive sentiment is evident in last Friday's above expectation increase in month over month retail sales of 1.9%. Some may find it surprising that total retail sales are now above the pre shutdown level.On a...

Small Business Hiring Plans One Bright Spot In September NFIB Optimism Survey

 October 13 2020     David Templeton
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported a 3.8 point increase in the September Small Business Optimism Index. The Index level rose to 104.0, an optimism level above that reached in the beginning of the prior two recessions. The report notes nine of the ten Index components improved with one declining, the expected credit conditions category.As I have written in the recent pa...

Fall 2020 Investor Letter: Market Strength Continues

 October 12 2020     David Templeton
In our earlier Summer Investor Letter, we commented on the rapid market decline in the first quarter and the quick rebound that was unfolding. The quick rebound continued into the third quarter and by August, after a record short 126 trading days from the low on March 23rd, the S&P 500 Index recovered all the loss that followed the Index’s February 19 high. Despite a 3.80% decline in September, th...

Extraordinary Market And Economic Snapback

 October 11 2020     David Templeton
Consuelo Mack conducts another insightful WealthTrack interview with Nancy Lazar, Partner and Chief Economist at Cornerstone Macro. Nancy Lazar remains one of the top economist on Wall Street as ranked by Institutional Investor and she highlights how the recent monetary stimulus benefits the key drivers of the economy's economic growth, i.e., capital spending, housing, manufacturing, etc. In short...

Significance of an Index Dividend Yield Greater Than 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield

 October 7 2020     David Templeton
It probably goes without saying but bond market interest rates have been driven down to unforeseen levels, near zero, causing investors to search for yield in other places. The actions of Central Banks around the world are contributing to this low or no interest rate environment. As the bottom panel in the below chart shows, since the financial crisis in 2008/2009, the spread between the dividend ...

Earnings Support Market's Recent Move Higher

 October 6 2020     David Templeton
The one thing investor know about company earnings reports is it is a rearview mirror look on what has occurred on a quarterly or annual basis. This backward view may add little insight into what expectations might unfold in the future. Over the long run though, stocks do tend to follow earnings and or cash flow. Having noted this, the S&P 500 index bottomed in March while earnings bottomed in the...

Chicago Business Barometer Surges

 September 30 2020     David Templeton
Today's release of the Chicago Business Barometer for September jumped 11.2 points to 62.4. This is further evidence of an economy that is rebounding strongly from the virus initiated recession. The release noted, "all five main indicators saw monthly gains in September, with Production and New Orders leading the way.""Production recovered sharply in September, rising by 16.0 points to an almost t...

Higher Unemployment Level As Some States Are Slower To Reopen

 September 28 2020     David Templeton
Improvement is being made in the job market as the continuing claims data and unemployment rate continue to decline. In addition to the continuing claims category and as a result of the pandemic, another category of unemployment insurance has been created, the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) category. The PUA program had 11.5 million individuals receiving benefits as of the week ending Sept...

Individual Investor Sentiment Not Matching Actions

 September 24 2020     David Templeton
The American Association of Individual Investor's Sentiment Survey release for the week ending 9/23/2020 showed bullish investor sentiment fell 7.1 percentage points to 24.9%. The decline in bullish sentiment largely showed up in the 5.6 percentage point increase in bearish sentiment. When all is said and done, the bull/bear spread widened to minus 21.1 percentage points from the previous week's s...
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